***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.05.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.05.2016.-19.06.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 25.4 26.0 25.0 0.2 60.5 56.4 24.1 25.0 26.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 25.4 25.8 25.1 0.3 60.9 57.5 24.1 25.1 25.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 25.3 25.9 25.2 0.2 60.4 56.8 24.2 24.9 26.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 18.4 18.5 22.6 0.2 63.3 56.9 17.4 18.0 18.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 25.8 25.9 23.3 0.2 62.1 57.4 24.8 25.5 26.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 25.0 25.1 21.1 0.4 67.2 59.4 23.2 23.9 25.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 25.0 25.6 25.2 0.4 62.6 58.8 23.8 24.8 25.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 14.4 14.6 21.6 0.6 69.7 62.5 12.7 13.2 14.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 25.1 25.5 23.9 0.4 63.4 59.3 24.0 24.7 25.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 25.7 25.5 22.4 0.5 67.6 61.9 23.9 24.8 25.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 25.5 26.0 23.3 0.4 64.6 59.6 24.4 25.2 26.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 24.6 25.0 22.5 0.4 66.7 59.9 23.4 24.3 25.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 25.7 26.2 22.3 0.4 64.1 58.1 24.3 25.2 26.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 25.1 25.6 23.6 0.5 65.2 61.4 24.0 24.8 25.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 26.2 26.0 24.2 0.1 61.3 55.5 25.2 25.9 26.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 26.1 26.8 22.8 0.3 64.8 58.1 25.1 25.7 26.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 24.7 25.3 25.0 0.4 62.4 59.1 23.5 24.4 25.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 25.1 25.4 21.8 0.6 68.1 63.4 23.4 24.2 25.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 24.9 25.2 25.1 0.3 60.2 57.0 23.8 24.7 25.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 20.8 20.9 19.5 0.7 72.7 63.6 18.8 19.7 20.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 25.1 25.6 24.8 0.2 60.8 57.1 24.1 24.7 25.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 25.1 25.7 24.7 0.3 60.7 56.0 23.9 24.8 25.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 25.2 25.7 25.0 0.4 63.1 59.4 24.0 24.9 25.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 24.6 25.2 23.6 0.5 62.8 61.4 23.6 24.3 25.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 25.3 25.8 23.5 0.1 60.4 55.7 24.2 24.9 26.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 25.2 25.9 21.9 0.5 69.2 61.1 24.0 24.9 25.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 25.1 25.6 24.3 0.2 60.5 56.0 23.8 24.8 25.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 26.2 26.3 23.2 0.2 62.4 56.4 25.1 26.0 26.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 33 67 100 20.6 20.7 21.0 0.7 70.4 63.6 18.5 19.6 20.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 25.2 25.5 25.1 0.2 61.2 57.1 24.1 25.0 25.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------