***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.05.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.06.2016.-19.06.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 24.6 25.4 26.2 -0.6 44.4 42.7 24.7 26.6 28.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 26.4 25.5 26.2 -0.6 47.2 44.8 24.1 25.6 27.6 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 23.7 24.7 26.4 -0.6 45.8 43.3 24.1 25.0 27.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 66 34 0 100 17.5 18.9 24.2 -0.5 47.8 43.6 17.5 19.0 20.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 24.5 25.4 24.7 -0.5 48.0 44.9 24.8 25.4 27.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 23.4 25.2 22.6 0.0 56.2 50.0 23.9 25.0 25.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 23.7 25.3 26.2 -0.6 46.2 44.7 23.9 25.4 27.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 15.3 14.8 23.2 -0.1 53.0 49.2 13.1 14.7 16.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 23.7 24.7 24.9 -0.4 47.0 45.4 23.9 24.8 27.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 24.0 25.0 23.7 -0.2 50.5 47.8 24.2 25.0 27.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 24.0 25.4 24.5 -0.2 52.5 47.7 24.4 25.1 27.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 25.7 25.3 24.2 -0.2 54.3 48.9 24.0 25.0 26.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 24.8 26.5 23.4 -0.2 55.2 49.0 25.0 26.1 27.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 23.4 24.0 24.6 -0.4 45.9 45.9 23.7 24.3 26.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 64 36 0 100 25.3 26.5 25.2 -0.6 45.7 43.5 25.4 26.7 28.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 25.4 27.4 24.1 -0.2 53.7 47.9 25.3 26.7 28.4 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 23.4 24.8 26.1 -0.5 45.5 45.1 23.7 25.1 27.3 29 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 23.3 24.3 23.2 -0.2 48.6 48.2 23.6 24.4 26.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 23.3 24.3 26.2 -0.6 46.8 44.5 23.5 24.6 27.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 21.5 21.0 20.9 0.0 51.6 49.8 19.4 20.8 22.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 24.1 25.0 25.8 -0.6 46.2 43.3 24.3 25.3 27.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 23.5 24.4 25.8 -0.6 42.9 43.7 24.0 25.5 27.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 23.5 24.8 26.2 -0.5 47.2 44.7 23.5 25.0 27.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 23.5 24.3 24.6 -0.3 46.9 46.3 23.5 24.4 26.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 24.2 25.4 24.5 -0.6 45.3 42.4 24.5 25.8 27.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 26.5 26.1 23.8 0.2 58.4 52.8 24.9 26.0 27.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 23.5 24.7 25.3 -0.6 44.4 43.0 23.7 25.0 27.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 25.3 26.5 24.6 -0.5 48.2 44.2 25.5 26.5 28.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 18.7 19.9 22.4 -0.1 49.3 48.5 19.1 19.9 21.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 23.5 24.6 26.2 -0.6 47.9 44.5 23.8 24.9 27.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------