***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.05.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.06.2016.-12.06.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 27.4 26.4 24.7 -0.6 46.9 46.2 25.5 26.8 27.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 26.6 25.9 24.7 -0.6 47.5 46.7 24.8 26.2 28.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 26.6 25.9 24.9 -0.6 45.9 46.3 25.0 26.0 28.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 20.1 19.2 22.6 -0.7 48.6 45.1 17.4 19.4 20.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 27.3 26.5 23.0 -0.6 45.1 46.1 25.3 26.7 28.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 26.1 25.4 20.8 -0.3 49.7 47.3 23.5 25.5 26.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 26.3 25.7 24.8 -0.5 48.3 47.1 24.6 25.8 27.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 15.3 14.7 21.3 -0.3 51.6 49.0 13.2 14.7 15.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 27.1 26.4 23.3 -0.5 45.1 46.7 25.0 26.5 27.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 27.0 26.4 22.0 -0.4 48.6 47.8 24.9 26.4 27.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 27.5 26.5 22.7 -0.5 46.7 47.2 25.5 26.9 27.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 26.2 25.7 22.3 -0.4 49.7 48.2 24.0 25.7 26.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 27.7 27.1 21.6 -0.4 50.1 47.8 24.9 27.1 27.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 26.6 25.8 22.9 -0.5 48.2 46.5 24.9 25.8 27.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 27.7 26.9 23.5 -0.8 49.0 44.4 25.7 27.0 28.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 28.1 27.4 22.3 -0.5 47.9 47.2 25.7 27.5 28.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 26.3 25.8 24.6 -0.5 48.4 47.2 23.5 25.8 27.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 25.8 25.0 21.4 -0.4 48.4 47.9 24.6 25.1 26.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 26.2 25.5 24.7 -0.6 46.4 46.2 24.4 25.6 27.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 21.4 20.7 19.1 -0.2 51.7 49.7 19.8 20.7 21.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 27.1 26.3 24.2 -0.6 44.7 46.0 25.1 26.6 27.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 26.7 25.8 24.3 -0.7 45.4 44.9 24.5 26.3 27.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 26.7 25.9 24.6 -0.6 47.7 46.6 24.4 26.0 27.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 26.2 25.3 22.9 -0.5 46.8 46.6 24.9 25.5 27.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 27.1 26.0 23.0 -0.6 45.1 45.8 25.3 26.4 27.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 26.9 26.3 21.8 -0.1 53.2 50.7 24.5 26.2 27.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 26.7 25.9 23.9 -0.6 45.8 46.2 24.8 26.1 27.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 27.9 26.9 22.8 -0.7 48.2 44.7 25.9 27.2 28.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 21.2 20.4 20.6 -0.3 49.7 48.2 19.4 20.4 22.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 26.5 25.8 24.7 -0.6 48.4 46.8 24.8 25.9 27.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------