***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.05.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.05.2016.-05.06.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 25.1 25.7 25.4 1.5 66.1 64.0 22.2 24.8 25.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 25.0 26.2 25.5 1.5 66.8 63.6 23.5 24.6 26.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 84 16 100 25.3 26.4 25.6 1.5 67.3 64.4 22.3 24.9 26.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 86 14 100 17.3 19.1 23.0 1.8 70.8 66.8 15.5 16.9 18.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 85 15 100 25.4 26.8 23.9 1.8 70.3 66.7 22.6 25.0 26.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 24.9 25.7 21.9 2.2 78.5 70.0 22.1 23.5 25.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 85 15 100 24.8 26.0 25.6 1.5 67.2 64.5 22.7 24.4 25.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 40 60 100 14.2 15.3 22.2 2.3 77.6 70.2 11.0 12.6 14.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 46 54 100 26.0 26.1 24.6 1.9 71.8 67.5 22.0 24.6 25.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 42 58 100 25.8 26.0 23.0 2.1 74.7 68.8 22.2 24.3 25.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 45 55 100 26.1 26.2 24.1 2.0 72.1 67.7 23.4 24.8 25.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 44 56 100 24.7 25.6 23.2 2.2 76.3 69.2 22.4 23.4 25.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 44 56 100 26.2 27.3 23.3 2.1 77.0 68.2 23.2 24.8 26.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 43 57 100 25.6 26.2 24.1 1.9 71.5 67.2 23.1 24.2 25.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 86 14 100 25.8 26.7 25.0 1.6 69.3 66.6 23.7 25.6 26.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 46 54 100 26.7 27.7 23.5 2.0 75.1 67.6 23.7 25.4 26.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 84 16 100 24.5 25.8 25.3 1.6 66.3 64.7 23.0 24.0 25.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 39 61 100 25.4 26.3 22.3 2.2 77.0 69.4 21.9 23.5 25.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 84 16 100 24.5 25.9 25.4 1.5 66.9 63.7 23.0 24.0 25.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 41 59 100 20.5 22.1 20.2 2.4 79.2 71.2 17.3 18.5 20.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 84 16 100 25.1 26.2 25.4 1.7 69.5 65.8 22.1 24.6 26.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 84 16 100 24.9 26.6 25.0 1.4 65.3 63.5 23.3 24.4 26.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 85 15 100 25.1 26.4 25.4 1.7 68.1 65.6 23.2 24.8 26.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 24.3 25.9 24.1 1.9 72.5 67.4 22.3 23.8 25.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 84 16 100 25.3 26.2 24.1 1.5 67.6 64.9 22.6 25.0 26.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 31 69 100 26.0 26.9 22.6 2.4 80.9 72.3 22.6 24.3 26.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 24.8 25.8 24.8 1.4 66.1 64.1 22.7 24.3 25.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 86 14 100 26.1 26.8 23.8 1.8 71.9 67.1 23.8 25.9 26.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 41 59 100 20.2 21.2 21.5 2.2 77.0 70.0 17.5 18.6 20.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 86 14 100 25.1 25.9 25.5 1.4 65.8 63.5 23.1 24.7 26.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------