***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.05.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.05.2016.-29.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 88 12 100 26.1 26.0 23.8 0.5 53.3 54.8 22.7 25.9 26.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 85 15 100 25.4 25.7 24.1 0.8 58.4 59.0 23.3 25.2 26.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 85 15 100 25.4 25.7 23.9 0.6 55.7 55.4 23.6 25.1 26.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 85 15 100 18.4 18.3 20.5 0.2 54.0 52.6 15.9 18.2 18.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 85 15 100 25.3 25.2 21.7 0.2 52.1 52.0 23.3 24.9 26.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 23.3 23.2 19.0 -0.2 53.1 49.7 22.2 22.7 24.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 86 14 100 25.1 25.3 24.2 1.0 62.3 61.2 23.1 24.9 25.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 13.0 12.9 19.6 0.5 56.5 56.1 11.0 12.5 14.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 24.7 24.7 22.8 0.5 54.8 54.6 22.7 24.3 26.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 84 16 100 24.3 24.6 20.8 0.7 56.2 56.8 22.8 24.0 25.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 84 16 100 24.9 24.6 22.0 0.3 53.5 53.0 23.0 24.5 26.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 23.8 23.6 20.4 0.2 53.6 52.9 21.5 23.5 24.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 25.0 24.7 21.0 -0.1 52.5 50.4 22.9 24.6 26.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 84 16 100 24.9 25.8 22.9 1.1 58.4 59.8 23.5 24.7 26.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 89 11 100 25.3 25.3 23.2 0.0 50.9 50.6 23.7 25.0 26.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 25.5 25.6 21.2 0.0 52.0 50.8 23.6 25.2 26.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 47 53 100 25.4 25.3 24.0 1.2 64.0 63.0 22.5 24.5 25.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 23.9 24.4 20.2 0.9 57.7 59.6 21.9 23.5 25.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 85 15 100 25.0 25.3 24.0 0.8 57.3 57.9 22.8 24.8 25.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 18.9 19.1 17.8 0.7 58.3 57.1 16.6 18.4 20.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 84 16 100 25.3 25.5 23.7 0.4 53.9 54.1 23.2 25.1 26.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 84 16 100 25.3 25.6 23.8 0.9 61.4 60.7 22.7 24.9 26.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 86 14 100 25.2 26.0 24.0 1.0 58.8 59.1 23.1 25.0 26.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 24.6 24.7 22.7 1.0 56.8 59.1 22.8 24.4 25.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 86 14 100 25.5 25.6 22.5 0.3 52.4 52.6 23.0 25.3 26.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 23.7 23.3 19.2 -0.3 50.6 48.6 22.3 23.3 25.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 88 12 100 25.3 25.2 23.2 0.4 53.7 54.1 22.8 25.1 25.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 85 15 100 25.4 25.3 21.6 0.1 53.0 51.7 23.5 25.0 26.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 19.0 19.7 19.5 0.9 57.4 59.2 16.8 18.6 20.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 86 14 100 25.4 25.5 24.1 0.7 55.4 57.5 23.2 25.2 25.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------