***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.05.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.05.2016.-19.06.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 13.4 13.7 15.3 0.3 62.4 60.5 12.7 13.2 13.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 39 61 100 14.0 13.7 15.1 0.4 67.1 62.2 12.3 13.1 13.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 84 16 100 15.0 15.7 15.5 0.4 64.7 61.7 14.0 14.7 15.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 10.0 10.7 13.0 0.4 67.1 62.7 9.0 9.8 10.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 12.0 12.0 13.3 0.4 64.6 61.5 11.3 11.8 12.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 10.9 10.9 10.9 0.3 66.5 60.2 10.3 10.7 10.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 13.5 13.8 15.2 0.4 65.4 61.5 12.7 13.3 13.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 5.5 6.1 10.9 0.4 66.1 62.4 5.1 5.3 6.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 12.9 13.0 13.4 0.4 61.8 60.6 12.4 12.8 13.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 84 16 100 12.8 13.2 11.9 0.4 64.1 62.0 12.2 12.7 13.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 12.6 12.9 12.7 0.3 62.4 60.3 12.1 12.5 13.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 10.7 10.8 11.7 0.3 65.0 60.1 10.4 10.5 10.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 12.3 12.4 11.4 0.2 59.3 56.9 11.4 12.1 12.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 44 56 100 13.8 13.8 13.5 0.6 66.5 65.2 12.9 13.4 13.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 13.8 13.8 14.3 0.2 60.0 58.2 13.2 13.6 14.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 12.9 13.5 12.2 0.3 61.9 59.0 12.3 12.7 13.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 42 58 100 14.1 13.9 15.0 0.6 67.2 64.1 12.9 13.5 13.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 84 16 100 11.4 11.7 11.4 0.5 65.0 63.9 10.9 11.2 11.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 13.3 13.6 15.1 0.4 66.5 62.0 12.7 13.1 13.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 42 58 100 7.6 7.7 9.2 0.5 66.8 64.5 6.9 7.2 7.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 12.9 13.1 14.8 0.4 62.7 60.8 12.3 12.8 13.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 12.9 13.1 14.9 0.5 65.7 62.0 12.4 12.7 13.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 12.9 13.2 15.0 0.5 66.4 63.4 12.4 12.8 13.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 13.0 13.3 13.4 0.5 65.1 63.7 12.5 12.9 13.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 13.1 13.4 14.1 0.3 61.6 59.1 12.3 12.9 13.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 11.7 12.0 11.0 0.4 66.7 60.7 11.1 11.6 12.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 84 16 100 13.1 13.5 14.7 0.3 62.9 60.1 12.4 12.8 13.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 11.9 12.0 13.4 0.4 65.8 61.4 11.4 11.7 12.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 85 15 100 9.7 10.3 10.6 0.5 65.1 63.4 9.0 9.6 10.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 13.6 13.9 15.3 0.4 65.4 61.4 12.8 13.4 13.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------