***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.05.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.06.2016.-19.06.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 13.5 14.3 16.4 -0.2 49.3 48.5 13.8 14.3 14.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 14.7 14.3 16.2 -0.2 50.6 48.1 12.9 14.3 14.9 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 14.6 15.4 16.6 -0.2 46.9 47.5 14.6 15.7 17.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 11.4 10.8 14.1 -0.1 48.3 50.2 9.3 10.9 12.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 13.2 12.8 14.2 -0.1 48.7 49.9 11.9 12.9 13.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 12.2 11.7 12.1 0.0 51.6 51.0 10.8 11.7 12.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 14.6 14.1 16.4 -0.2 48.0 47.9 13.2 14.2 14.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 5.1 6.4 12.0 0.0 47.8 50.9 5.2 6.5 7.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 14.2 13.8 14.4 -0.1 48.9 49.1 13.1 13.8 14.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 12.7 13.6 13.0 -0.1 49.0 50.0 13.0 13.6 14.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 13.0 13.7 13.6 -0.1 49.2 49.8 13.0 13.7 14.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 12.1 11.6 12.8 -0.1 46.4 50.3 10.8 11.6 12.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 13.4 12.9 12.2 -0.1 47.6 49.0 12.5 13.1 14.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 13.5 14.6 14.5 -0.1 51.4 49.8 13.5 14.6 15.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 14.0 14.9 15.4 -0.1 49.0 50.8 14.0 14.9 15.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 13.2 13.8 13.1 -0.1 49.6 50.1 13.0 13.8 15.1 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 13.4 14.6 16.1 -0.2 48.8 48.2 13.3 14.8 15.2 29 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 11.5 12.5 12.4 -0.1 50.0 50.0 11.7 12.5 13.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 14.5 14.3 16.2 -0.2 51.8 48.2 13.1 14.2 14.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 7.4 8.0 10.0 0.1 50.1 51.9 7.3 7.9 8.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 12.8 13.5 15.7 -0.2 47.9 48.1 13.1 13.5 14.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 14.0 13.4 15.9 -0.2 47.8 47.8 12.6 13.5 14.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 12.8 13.7 16.2 -0.1 52.2 49.2 12.7 13.7 14.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 13.1 14.3 14.2 -0.2 48.1 48.4 13.2 14.3 14.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 12.6 13.4 15.0 -0.1 49.9 49.3 12.7 13.4 14.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 13.0 12.8 12.1 0.1 54.9 52.9 11.7 12.6 13.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 12.5 13.7 15.8 -0.1 49.4 49.2 12.2 13.7 14.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 13.2 12.5 14.5 -0.1 48.1 49.9 12.0 12.7 14.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 9.2 10.6 11.7 0.0 49.3 50.6 9.3 10.6 11.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 14.9 14.5 16.4 -0.2 49.4 48.1 12.9 14.5 14.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------