***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.05.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.06.2016.-12.06.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 15.1 15.1 15.4 0.0 54.0 52.2 13.9 14.9 15.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 14.6 14.3 15.1 0.0 52.2 51.2 13.2 14.2 15.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 16.5 16.4 15.5 0.0 55.6 52.3 14.7 16.2 16.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 11.3 11.0 13.0 0.1 52.7 52.6 9.8 11.0 12.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 13.2 13.1 13.1 0.1 53.7 52.5 12.3 13.0 13.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 11.9 11.8 11.0 0.2 57.8 54.6 11.0 11.6 12.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 15.0 15.0 15.2 0.0 51.4 51.5 13.4 14.8 15.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 6.6 6.9 10.9 0.2 59.6 54.9 5.5 6.2 7.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 14.1 14.0 13.3 0.1 53.8 52.3 13.2 13.8 14.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 13.6 13.7 11.8 0.1 57.5 53.6 12.9 13.4 14.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 84 16 100 13.6 13.5 12.5 0.1 53.2 53.0 13.0 13.4 13.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 11.9 11.7 11.7 0.1 55.8 53.8 10.7 11.7 11.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 13.4 13.4 11.2 0.2 53.6 53.1 12.7 13.3 13.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 14.7 15.0 13.3 0.1 58.7 53.9 13.4 14.4 15.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 14.8 14.6 14.3 0.0 48.7 51.0 14.0 14.6 15.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 14.2 14.1 12.0 0.2 52.4 53.3 12.9 14.0 14.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 15.5 15.3 15.0 0.0 51.6 51.3 13.5 15.3 15.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 12.7 13.0 11.3 0.2 60.7 54.7 11.7 12.5 13.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 15.1 15.0 15.1 0.0 53.2 51.5 13.4 14.9 15.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 8.4 8.6 8.9 0.3 64.1 56.5 7.5 8.2 8.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 14.2 14.2 14.7 0.1 55.5 52.4 13.0 14.0 14.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 14.3 14.2 14.8 0.0 53.0 50.8 13.6 14.1 14.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 14.4 14.6 15.0 0.1 55.1 53.1 13.2 14.2 14.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 14.1 14.3 13.1 0.1 57.8 53.4 13.0 13.8 14.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 14.5 14.5 14.0 0.0 53.2 51.9 13.3 14.3 14.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 84 16 100 12.6 12.5 11.0 0.1 52.9 53.2 12.1 12.4 12.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 14.4 14.1 14.7 0.0 52.9 51.8 13.4 14.0 15.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 84 16 100 13.1 12.9 13.4 0.1 51.0 52.3 11.9 12.9 13.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 11.0 11.0 10.6 0.2 61.5 54.7 10.1 10.6 11.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 15.4 15.3 15.3 0.0 53.2 51.9 13.6 15.2 15.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------