***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.05.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.05.2016.-05.06.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 43 57 100 13.2 13.5 15.6 1.4 69.3 67.3 11.7 12.6 13.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 42 58 100 13.5 13.9 15.4 1.6 72.0 69.9 11.5 12.6 13.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 42 58 100 15.3 15.6 15.9 1.6 74.0 70.6 12.9 14.4 15.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 42 58 100 10.2 10.7 13.4 1.6 76.3 71.0 8.1 9.5 10.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 38 62 100 12.0 12.4 13.9 1.7 76.1 73.3 10.7 11.2 11.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 29 71 100 10.7 11.0 11.5 1.7 79.2 73.2 9.6 10.1 10.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 42 58 100 13.8 13.8 15.5 1.5 70.6 69.3 11.9 13.2 13.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 33 67 100 5.9 6.4 11.5 1.8 79.8 74.9 4.0 5.1 5.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 13.1 13.6 14.1 1.7 77.0 74.0 11.7 12.2 12.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 13.1 13.7 12.5 1.8 79.5 74.9 11.5 12.1 12.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 12.6 13.2 13.5 1.7 79.4 73.6 11.2 11.7 12.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 31 69 100 11.1 11.4 12.3 1.7 78.4 73.5 9.8 10.4 10.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 29 71 100 12.3 12.8 12.2 1.6 80.1 72.8 10.9 11.3 12.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 14.0 14.6 14.0 1.9 79.8 76.1 11.9 12.9 13.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 42 58 100 13.9 13.7 14.9 1.3 72.4 69.3 13.0 13.2 13.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 31 69 100 13.1 13.5 12.9 1.7 79.2 72.9 11.4 12.2 13.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 38 62 100 14.0 14.4 15.4 1.7 75.6 72.3 12.3 13.1 13.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 12.0 12.7 12.0 1.9 80.9 75.9 9.9 10.8 11.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 42 58 100 13.5 13.9 15.5 1.6 72.8 70.6 11.6 12.8 13.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 7.6 8.2 9.9 1.9 84.8 76.2 6.1 6.8 7.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 43 57 100 13.0 13.3 15.4 1.7 75.1 72.1 11.6 12.1 12.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 13.2 13.4 15.4 1.7 75.0 72.8 11.5 12.4 13.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 39 61 100 13.5 14.2 15.5 1.8 75.2 72.9 11.0 12.4 13.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 13.3 13.8 14.0 1.9 79.8 75.5 11.4 12.3 13.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 42 58 100 13.2 13.5 14.6 1.4 69.7 66.9 11.1 12.1 13.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 31 69 100 11.7 12.2 11.8 1.8 82.7 75.4 10.5 11.0 11.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 42 58 100 13.5 13.4 15.1 1.4 69.1 66.4 11.6 12.2 13.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 11.9 12.4 13.9 1.6 77.9 72.8 10.8 11.1 11.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 10.1 11.1 11.2 1.9 80.7 75.8 8.1 8.8 10.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 44 56 100 13.7 13.9 15.6 1.5 70.5 68.8 11.8 12.8 13.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------