***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.05.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.05.2016.-29.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 97 3 100 12.4 13.3 13.7 0.1 56.5 53.0 11.8 12.4 13.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 95 5 100 12.5 13.1 13.6 0.4 55.7 56.4 11.4 12.4 13.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 95 5 100 14.8 15.2 14.0 0.3 55.9 54.3 13.1 14.8 15.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 95 5 100 9.3 9.9 11.5 0.2 53.7 54.3 8.0 9.2 10.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 94 6 100 11.5 11.4 12.0 -0.1 49.4 48.6 10.0 11.5 12.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 85 15 100 10.0 9.4 9.0 -0.5 42.7 41.9 9.2 9.8 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 94 6 100 12.7 13.0 13.7 0.4 56.3 56.9 11.8 12.6 13.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 94 6 100 5.4 5.1 9.3 -0.2 45.9 45.8 2.9 5.3 5.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 94 6 100 12.1 11.4 12.0 -0.3 44.3 44.9 10.8 12.0 13.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 95 5 100 12.0 11.9 10.3 -0.2 45.0 45.4 10.9 12.0 13.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 91 9 100 11.8 11.4 11.4 -0.4 42.6 42.0 10.9 11.7 12.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 89 11 100 10.2 9.5 10.1 -0.4 43.4 42.6 8.8 10.0 10.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 11.6 10.6 10.0 -0.8 36.2 35.5 10.5 11.4 11.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 96 4 100 12.8 12.7 12.1 0.3 50.8 53.0 11.8 12.7 13.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 90 10 100 12.9 12.5 12.8 -0.5 45.5 43.3 11.7 12.8 13.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 85 15 100 12.7 12.1 10.7 -0.6 40.4 39.9 10.9 12.5 13.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 89 11 100 13.2 13.8 13.5 0.7 63.0 61.5 12.2 13.1 13.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 97 3 100 10.2 10.1 10.0 0.0 46.8 49.1 9.5 10.2 11.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 94 6 100 12.4 12.9 13.5 0.3 53.8 54.9 11.8 12.3 13.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 93 7 100 6.8 6.2 7.9 -0.1 45.3 47.5 5.6 6.7 7.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 96 4 100 12.2 12.2 13.4 -0.1 50.2 49.8 10.7 12.1 13.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 89 11 100 12.2 12.6 13.5 0.4 58.0 57.3 11.3 12.0 13.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 93 7 100 12.7 12.8 13.5 0.3 53.6 54.6 11.3 12.6 13.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 97 3 100 12.0 12.0 12.2 0.2 51.0 52.2 11.0 12.0 13.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 93 7 100 12.8 12.7 12.8 -0.1 49.8 49.2 11.7 12.7 13.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 11.1 10.2 9.2 -0.6 41.5 40.0 9.7 10.8 11.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 95 5 100 12.7 13.1 13.3 0.0 53.7 52.1 11.6 12.6 13.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 91 9 100 11.1 11.0 11.8 -0.2 49.8 48.5 10.4 11.0 11.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 96 4 100 9.5 9.4 9.1 -0.1 44.6 46.7 7.5 9.5 10.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 95 5 100 12.8 13.0 13.8 0.3 54.1 54.8 11.7 12.7 14.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------