***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.05.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.05.2017.-18.06.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 56.1 66.0 62.2 83.9 42.4 41.0 58.2 69.1 82.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 53.2 64.5 53.0 83.6 42.8 40.7 55.6 71.4 83.4 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 60.2 84.2 62.2 87.3 45.2 42.5 68.2 87.6 107.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 70 30 0 100 62.0 80.9 65.0 86.1 44.3 41.0 69.9 89.5 95.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 51.6 66.7 63.4 87.0 46.7 43.1 53.6 70.4 78.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 55.1 66.1 73.7 85.0 43.0 39.1 57.4 73.9 82.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 43.6 52.4 52.5 81.6 42.7 40.5 43.4 58.5 72.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 85.4 93.9 74.0 86.4 42.2 41.5 87.7 100.3 113.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 54.4 64.4 64.1 84.7 43.4 41.3 52.5 68.1 75.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 65 35 0 100 63.9 74.1 75.0 84.9 41.3 40.8 62.2 82.4 91.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 53.1 59.3 63.2 85.8 42.5 42.2 54.7 64.8 70.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 45.6 55.8 63.2 86.3 44.7 42.0 45.3 63.2 71.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 47.8 56.3 65.7 83.4 43.3 40.1 50.5 58.2 75.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 79.2 91.3 82.3 92.4 47.0 46.4 84.4 94.9 103.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 65 35 0 100 40.1 56.3 57.3 84.0 44.1 40.1 46.5 58.7 64.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 65 35 0 100 39.0 48.0 61.9 83.9 42.3 40.8 41.0 51.2 66.4 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 42.5 56.5 51.9 84.1 43.0 40.6 50.6 64.7 80.9 29 Palic 37000G16 63 37 0 100 66.7 77.5 84.1 89.1 45.6 43.0 69.5 80.1 93.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 60.7 75.7 56.9 88.2 45.6 42.7 67.2 78.6 91.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 59.0 69.9 81.5 85.9 41.6 40.2 55.7 77.3 90.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 49.8 67.3 64.0 87.0 45.7 42.7 55.0 69.1 74.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 56.0 71.8 57.0 89.4 48.3 42.0 61.8 72.4 83.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 51.9 60.3 62.7 92.9 49.3 45.6 55.3 60.3 76.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 71.9 82.4 75.9 90.9 46.7 44.7 77.6 84.6 100.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 54.6 62.2 69.2 85.5 42.0 42.5 57.2 68.1 77.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 43.5 60.7 60.3 85.8 44.4 40.9 45.3 62.6 73.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 55.0 64.4 66.6 83.3 39.9 41.0 62.8 76.2 86.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 70 30 0 100 44.8 54.5 62.8 86.0 44.7 40.6 44.8 58.7 74.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 84.0 101.0 86.0 90.4 46.0 43.5 85.4 103.9 119.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 53.6 65.1 55.2 83.5 43.9 40.8 53.5 72.8 85.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------