***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.05.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.06.2017.-18.06.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 7.6 18.7 15.0 81.9 53.2 43.1 2.7 16.4 21.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 8.5 20.3 11.0 71.1 50.2 38.2 7.4 20.1 25.9 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 11.5 28.9 14.3 82.2 54.5 43.2 8.3 21.6 35.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 9.9 27.9 14.2 84.7 58.2 43.5 11.1 21.4 37.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 8.8 23.1 13.4 86.7 59.6 45.4 5.8 18.0 25.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 65 35 0 100 4.6 10.8 13.9 77.6 49.8 40.6 3.1 10.8 15.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 65 35 0 100 5.8 10.6 10.9 69.1 49.8 38.0 6.1 10.6 22.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 10.5 20.5 16.5 93.6 56.8 46.0 10.8 17.0 22.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 25.4 23.7 14.0 84.4 56.7 44.8 10.9 21.3 28.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 10.6 26.2 17.1 89.1 55.9 44.7 12.8 23.1 33.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 5.7 16.6 12.2 81.8 55.2 43.3 8.0 12.8 21.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 3.4 8.3 12.9 88.0 56.9 44.9 3.6 6.6 19.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 4.0 11.0 13.1 83.4 54.8 43.1 5.0 10.2 17.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 12.6 23.9 20.2 98.6 59.5 47.4 12.1 22.3 28.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 5.3 17.5 12.4 82.8 59.9 42.3 2.5 12.5 19.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 2.9 8.1 12.1 79.7 54.7 42.7 3.5 5.9 10.8 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 5.3 9.4 10.5 69.0 49.3 37.2 3.6 9.7 17.2 29 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 9.0 23.8 21.2 100.3 59.5 47.8 9.2 18.3 31.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 11.9 20.4 12.1 77.7 51.4 40.0 12.2 19.2 24.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 7.4 28.1 21.3 110.8 63.0 50.0 8.6 15.3 31.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 8.1 17.0 14.0 83.4 56.0 44.0 9.4 13.7 23.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 5.3 11.5 12.4 79.5 52.3 38.8 7.2 9.6 21.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 7.6 16.9 13.8 88.0 55.3 43.5 8.1 15.5 20.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 17.3 33.9 18.2 94.5 58.4 47.2 12.3 27.0 35.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 5.7 13.8 15.8 84.3 57.1 44.4 6.7 10.9 25.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 3.7 12.7 11.5 93.0 59.0 46.8 5.1 8.6 16.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 7.2 15.4 15.2 78.8 52.9 42.4 9.3 14.3 24.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 6.5 20.2 13.1 81.6 57.9 42.3 6.7 15.4 24.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 15.5 35.9 22.0 106.9 62.2 49.3 19.6 30.0 36.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 8.3 19.1 12.2 75.0 52.1 39.6 6.7 18.1 24.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------