***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.05.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.05.2017.-04.06.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 7.2 13.7 12.6 62.7 42.1 35.7 6.5 14.2 20.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 68 32 0 100 6.7 15.2 12.7 75.0 51.3 40.4 7.7 13.8 18.8 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 10.0 18.1 12.9 67.7 46.2 38.0 8.2 18.7 22.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 72 28 0 100 8.7 16.2 14.7 72.2 44.6 38.0 11.7 17.1 26.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 65 35 0 100 6.8 10.6 13.8 67.1 41.9 36.9 9.3 12.8 18.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 64 36 0 100 8.8 12.4 16.9 68.4 39.7 36.4 10.5 15.3 20.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 3.2 7.6 12.8 74.5 52.4 41.3 2.7 7.3 14.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 71 29 0 100 14.1 19.6 11.3 50.5 34.3 29.8 19.5 24.6 35.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 69 31 0 100 8.6 11.8 12.6 59.9 40.4 34.6 10.3 17.9 22.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 69 31 0 100 7.4 9.8 11.8 51.4 36.9 31.1 8.7 13.9 22.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 6.8 8.0 13.5 60.5 36.8 35.2 6.1 16.1 20.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 64 36 0 100 6.7 9.1 12.1 57.1 35.7 32.9 7.2 13.8 17.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 72 28 0 100 6.3 6.3 12.6 57.6 38.7 33.0 5.7 12.0 17.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 69 31 0 100 8.3 17.7 15.4 63.6 42.7 36.6 16.4 20.3 27.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 4.0 8.8 14.7 73.9 50.8 40.3 3.4 8.7 14.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 6.8 9.6 13.6 62.3 39.0 34.8 6.7 13.1 21.8 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 7.5 15.5 12.6 76.3 52.1 41.5 9.1 14.8 18.4 29 Palic 37000G16 65 35 0 100 12.7 13.2 13.2 54.3 34.1 31.3 13.2 18.9 26.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 67 33 0 100 5.8 17.1 12.9 73.5 49.4 39.3 4.7 17.3 20.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 69 31 0 100 8.1 8.0 11.4 48.1 30.8 27.4 8.0 12.4 21.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 66 34 0 100 6.9 10.4 12.9 63.8 44.5 36.3 7.2 15.1 20.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 6.0 10.6 12.8 72.6 49.2 39.9 6.7 10.9 20.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 62 38 0 100 7.6 14.4 13.6 71.5 46.7 39.2 8.2 15.5 20.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 70 30 0 100 8.8 15.2 13.4 59.4 38.4 33.8 12.5 22.6 27.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 66 34 0 100 7.3 14.1 14.9 65.6 42.1 36.1 9.9 17.5 22.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 65 35 0 100 3.8 5.7 13.8 64.0 39.9 35.8 4.6 6.8 18.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 7.2 11.6 14.8 67.0 44.0 37.0 7.0 14.2 21.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 67 33 0 100 5.7 11.6 14.1 71.3 46.3 38.3 6.6 13.5 17.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 68 32 0 100 14.3 14.2 14.0 55.9 35.0 31.1 14.2 26.6 35.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 5.5 16.0 12.9 74.0 52.1 40.4 7.8 13.4 20.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------