***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.05.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.05.2017.-28.05.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 12.4 13.9 20.9 117.2 67.1 59.5 7.5 11.1 13.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 8.4 13.5 17.4 111.1 65.3 58.2 4.4 5.3 13.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 10.2 14.4 21.4 120.7 68.1 59.1 3.7 6.8 11.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 13.1 19.1 22.2 103.8 63.6 53.1 5.8 9.5 19.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 13.9 16.4 24.2 116.9 69.7 57.9 6.8 12.2 16.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 13.0 14.8 25.9 106.1 59.2 53.9 5.8 11.7 16.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 11.4 11.6 16.6 102.9 61.7 55.8 4.3 8.8 13.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 20.9 29.3 32.0 115.8 67.0 59.5 11.8 16.7 28.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 10.4 14.7 25.2 119.7 68.2 58.4 5.1 8.2 14.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 18.5 20.9 31.7 118.9 68.6 59.9 7.8 15.3 20.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 10.3 15.5 26.1 119.6 69.7 60.2 5.8 8.9 14.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 14.7 16.9 25.6 116.3 67.1 59.4 4.0 11.8 16.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 10.7 10.9 26.7 110.7 65.4 56.7 4.4 8.5 11.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 40 60 100 21.1 26.2 29.4 132.0 73.6 63.0 8.0 12.7 23.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 5.4 8.5 16.1 86.6 56.9 48.2 5.3 7.4 13.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 8.5 16.5 23.6 112.8 65.8 56.6 4.1 6.1 16.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 8.0 11.2 16.1 110.0 65.7 58.4 2.4 6.3 11.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 15.3 20.1 32.5 123.9 69.1 60.6 4.4 12.7 19.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 18.9 15.1 19.7 125.7 71.5 62.1 4.6 9.6 14.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 14.9 16.7 31.8 107.6 64.9 56.9 6.9 12.7 17.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 8.9 11.0 23.7 120.8 68.6 58.5 5.5 7.7 10.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 11.4 13.3 18.5 128.5 75.3 62.5 6.5 9.0 11.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 26 74 100 14.9 17.2 22.6 137.7 76.0 65.0 4.2 7.4 12.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 13.6 22.6 28.4 131.1 71.6 62.6 4.9 10.1 16.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 9.4 11.3 23.2 113.2 68.3 57.2 4.2 7.4 11.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 14.7 18.8 22.5 107.7 61.8 55.0 5.1 12.6 19.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 11.8 13.5 21.3 110.2 65.6 57.4 6.1 10.6 13.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 13.3 16.1 21.4 100.9 62.7 51.6 5.2 11.6 17.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 20.7 23.4 31.9 120.3 69.1 59.7 12.7 16.3 22.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 9.5 10.1 18.1 109.1 63.6 56.9 4.4 7.6 11.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------