***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.05.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.05.2017.-18.06.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 28 72 100 26.1 26.4 25.6 1.3 74.4 69.2 24.0 25.0 25.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 24 76 100 26.0 26.5 26.0 1.6 81.9 72.3 24.1 24.9 26.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 25.8 26.3 25.7 1.2 73.6 67.9 24.1 24.7 26.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 19.0 18.8 22.8 0.9 69.8 64.8 17.1 18.0 18.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 25.8 26.1 23.5 0.9 67.5 63.7 24.7 25.6 26.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 24.2 24.9 20.8 0.6 64.5 60.2 23.2 23.8 24.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 25 75 100 25.7 26.0 25.8 1.5 78.9 71.0 23.7 24.7 25.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 40 60 100 14.2 14.5 21.4 0.8 68.2 62.7 12.6 13.2 14.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 39 61 100 25.7 25.9 24.2 1.1 73.2 66.7 23.7 24.7 25.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 41 59 100 25.5 25.6 22.4 1.0 71.2 64.8 23.8 24.7 25.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 40 60 100 26.0 26.0 23.4 0.9 67.6 64.0 24.2 25.2 26.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 25.1 24.9 22.5 0.8 68.7 63.3 23.3 24.3 24.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 38 62 100 26.2 26.2 22.2 0.7 63.6 61.3 24.3 25.2 26.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 24.9 25.7 23.6 0.8 65.4 62.6 24.2 24.5 25.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 26.8 27.0 24.5 1.0 73.3 66.8 25.2 25.9 26.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 26.8 26.9 22.8 0.8 66.8 63.3 25.0 25.6 26.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 24 76 100 25.4 26.0 25.8 1.6 80.6 72.6 23.5 24.5 25.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 24.5 25.1 21.7 0.9 69.6 63.3 23.3 24.2 25.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 26 74 100 25.5 26.0 25.9 1.5 81.4 71.5 23.8 24.5 25.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 20.0 20.2 19.1 0.6 63.7 60.5 18.7 19.6 20.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 43 57 100 25.7 26.0 25.0 1.0 69.4 65.1 23.9 24.6 25.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 32 68 100 25.8 26.3 25.3 1.3 78.8 69.5 23.9 24.8 25.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 32 68 100 25.9 26.5 25.6 1.4 77.8 69.5 24.1 24.7 25.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 24.5 25.4 23.7 1.0 69.3 64.2 23.6 24.2 25.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 25.2 25.8 23.8 0.9 67.0 64.0 24.2 24.9 25.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 25.7 26.0 22.1 1.3 78.5 68.7 23.9 25.0 25.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 25.7 26.0 24.7 1.1 72.0 67.1 23.8 24.8 25.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 26.7 26.8 23.4 0.9 70.6 65.0 25.1 25.9 26.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 20.0 20.1 20.7 0.7 65.3 61.6 18.3 19.6 20.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 26 74 100 25.8 26.1 25.9 1.5 79.3 70.7 23.9 24.9 25.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------