***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.05.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.06.2017.-18.06.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 28.3 28.8 27.4 1.7 73.3 66.8 24.7 26.5 28.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 27.8 29.1 27.8 2.2 78.1 68.9 24.2 25.6 27.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 38 62 100 27.5 28.4 27.7 1.8 75.1 66.7 24.6 25.5 27.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 31 69 100 20.8 21.4 25.1 1.4 71.2 64.6 17.7 19.2 20.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 28.1 27.8 25.3 1.2 68.9 63.3 25.0 26.0 27.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 25.9 25.9 22.5 0.8 59.5 59.2 24.1 25.6 26.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 27.6 28.4 27.7 2.1 76.7 68.2 24.1 25.6 27.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 15.3 16.0 23.3 1.0 65.9 61.2 13.1 14.7 16.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 38 62 100 27.4 28.1 25.7 1.4 70.5 64.3 24.4 25.3 27.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 39 61 100 27.2 26.5 24.2 1.2 68.3 62.6 24.7 25.3 26.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 27.8 27.6 25.0 1.2 68.8 62.9 25.0 25.9 27.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 39 61 100 26.7 26.4 24.5 1.2 67.5 62.4 24.3 25.4 26.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 27.1 27.2 23.6 1.0 64.7 60.9 25.4 26.5 27.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 25.4 26.7 25.0 1.1 65.0 61.3 23.7 24.7 26.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 26 74 100 28.9 29.1 26.2 1.5 73.1 66.5 25.8 27.1 28.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 28.8 27.9 24.6 1.2 67.6 62.9 25.8 27.1 27.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 32 68 100 27.3 28.4 27.6 2.2 76.7 68.6 23.7 24.8 26.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 25.6 26.2 23.6 1.1 66.5 61.5 23.7 25.1 26.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 26.8 27.9 27.8 2.1 77.4 68.3 23.8 24.7 27.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 21.6 21.6 20.8 0.9 62.2 59.2 19.4 21.2 21.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 37 63 100 27.7 27.8 26.6 1.4 70.8 63.9 24.7 25.7 27.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 34 66 100 27.4 28.0 27.1 1.9 73.8 66.9 23.9 25.3 27.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 27.4 28.1 27.4 1.8 74.3 66.5 24.1 25.4 27.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 40 60 100 26.7 26.7 25.3 1.3 69.0 62.9 24.0 24.6 26.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 27.7 28.1 25.4 1.3 69.9 63.8 25.1 26.2 27.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 27.5 27.8 24.4 1.7 74.2 67.0 25.1 26.3 27.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 27.2 27.6 26.4 1.6 71.9 65.6 24.1 25.6 27.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 31 69 100 29.3 28.3 25.4 1.3 70.7 64.6 25.8 27.1 27.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 20.7 21.4 22.4 0.9 62.6 59.5 19.4 19.9 21.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 27.3 28.4 27.7 2.0 76.9 68.2 24.0 25.1 27.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------