***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.05.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.06.2017.-11.06.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 28.0 28.1 26.5 1.7 71.9 66.3 25.3 25.7 27.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 32 68 100 27.7 28.3 26.9 2.1 74.6 68.4 25.1 25.6 27.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 27.7 28.1 26.8 1.8 72.1 66.2 25.1 25.8 27.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 38 62 100 20.5 21.1 24.1 1.4 69.4 64.2 17.2 19.0 21.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 40 60 100 28.2 28.2 24.5 1.4 69.8 63.7 25.3 26.9 28.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 25.3 26.9 21.9 1.3 69.9 63.3 23.5 24.8 26.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 32 68 100 27.5 27.9 26.8 2.0 74.6 67.5 24.4 25.2 27.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 14.7 15.7 22.6 1.4 70.5 63.6 13.1 14.2 15.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 42 58 100 27.6 27.8 24.9 1.6 73.4 64.4 25.0 26.4 27.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 26.4 27.9 23.4 1.5 71.4 63.9 24.6 26.0 27.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 27.0 28.0 24.2 1.5 72.6 64.2 25.3 26.6 27.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 25.7 27.3 23.7 1.5 72.1 64.1 23.8 25.3 26.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 27.3 28.2 22.8 1.4 69.6 63.2 25.2 26.9 27.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 41 59 100 27.6 27.4 24.3 1.3 66.0 61.6 25.0 25.6 27.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 28.7 28.5 25.1 1.5 72.4 66.0 25.4 27.2 27.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 41 59 100 28.3 28.8 23.7 1.5 72.3 64.5 26.0 27.2 28.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 33 67 100 27.1 27.6 26.8 2.0 73.9 67.7 24.3 25.3 26.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 25.7 27.2 22.9 1.5 70.4 63.1 24.2 25.1 26.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 33 67 100 27.3 28.0 26.9 2.1 73.8 67.9 24.6 25.2 27.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 21.2 21.5 20.2 1.3 69.1 62.6 19.6 20.5 21.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 41 59 100 27.8 28.0 25.7 1.5 70.7 63.8 24.9 26.5 27.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 27.6 28.1 26.3 1.8 72.2 66.0 24.9 25.9 27.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 27.6 28.1 26.5 1.8 71.7 66.1 25.1 25.6 27.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 39 61 100 27.0 27.4 24.5 1.5 70.0 63.5 24.8 25.3 27.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 27.9 27.3 24.5 1.4 68.4 63.4 24.9 26.3 27.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 27.4 28.5 23.6 2.2 80.3 69.8 24.6 26.0 27.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 27.6 27.6 25.5 1.6 71.0 65.2 24.8 26.0 26.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 36 64 100 28.4 28.6 24.3 1.5 71.3 65.0 25.9 27.0 28.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 20.7 22.3 21.8 1.3 68.4 61.7 19.1 20.1 21.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 27.7 28.1 26.8 2.0 74.2 67.5 24.8 25.9 27.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------