***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.05.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.05.2017.-28.05.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 86 14 100 25.2 25.0 22.7 -0.1 50.8 50.9 23.0 24.9 26.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 89 11 100 24.9 24.9 23.1 0.2 53.4 54.5 23.8 24.7 26.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 25.1 24.5 22.5 -0.4 46.7 47.6 23.8 24.7 26.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 84 16 100 17.8 16.6 19.2 -0.7 40.5 43.0 16.1 17.5 18.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 25.2 23.7 20.2 -0.8 40.1 42.2 23.0 24.7 26.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 23.6 21.9 17.4 -1.3 34.9 34.8 21.7 23.1 24.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 87 13 100 24.6 24.9 23.0 0.2 54.4 54.4 23.2 24.4 26.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 13.0 11.4 17.7 -1.0 39.1 38.8 10.8 12.6 13.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 85 15 100 24.5 23.7 21.4 -0.4 43.6 46.3 23.0 24.1 25.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 84 16 100 24.5 23.6 19.1 -0.8 42.3 42.4 22.7 24.0 25.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 24.8 23.8 20.4 -0.8 41.6 41.7 23.1 24.4 25.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 23.6 22.6 18.8 -1.0 38.8 39.6 21.7 23.1 24.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 24.8 23.7 19.6 -1.0 38.5 39.2 22.8 24.4 25.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 24.8 23.9 20.8 -0.7 40.2 42.5 23.8 24.3 25.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 86 14 100 25.2 24.1 22.1 -0.5 43.2 45.1 23.3 24.8 26.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 25.6 24.1 19.7 -0.9 38.9 40.0 23.8 25.1 25.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 88 12 100 25.0 25.0 22.9 0.4 55.3 56.2 23.2 24.8 25.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 23.8 22.8 18.0 -1.0 39.1 40.1 22.5 23.3 25.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 86 14 100 24.6 24.4 22.9 0.1 51.2 52.5 23.4 24.3 25.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 19.2 17.0 15.6 -1.3 35.5 36.0 16.8 18.7 20.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 24.6 23.9 22.2 -0.6 43.9 45.0 23.4 24.2 25.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 87 13 100 25.3 25.0 22.5 0.0 49.3 51.6 23.5 25.0 26.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 24.9 24.4 22.6 -0.1 50.2 50.4 23.8 24.4 26.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 24.2 23.4 20.6 -0.8 40.9 42.5 23.2 23.8 25.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 24.7 23.7 21.2 -0.6 43.3 45.1 23.2 24.2 25.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 23.8 22.8 18.1 -0.9 38.3 39.6 22.5 23.4 24.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 84 16 100 24.7 24.3 22.0 -0.3 48.0 48.5 23.4 24.4 25.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 25.4 23.4 20.2 -0.7 39.6 42.3 23.1 25.1 26.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 18.9 17.6 17.2 -1.1 38.6 39.2 17.1 18.4 20.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 87 13 100 24.9 24.9 23.0 0.1 52.9 53.2 23.5 24.6 26.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------