***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.05.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.06.2017.-18.06.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 14.8 15.3 16.4 0.9 62.8 61.6 14.0 14.7 15.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 15.3 15.3 16.6 1.1 69.0 64.8 13.0 14.0 15.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 84 16 100 16.0 16.8 16.6 0.9 64.7 63.4 14.9 15.7 16.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 11.1 12.3 13.8 0.7 64.0 62.1 9.3 10.7 12.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 13.3 13.6 13.8 0.7 64.5 61.8 12.1 13.1 13.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 86 14 100 12.1 13.0 11.8 0.7 64.1 62.3 11.2 11.9 13.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 40 60 100 15.4 15.2 16.7 1.1 69.3 64.4 13.2 14.3 15.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 6.5 7.8 11.4 0.6 65.4 61.5 5.1 6.2 7.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 14.3 14.8 14.1 0.7 65.8 62.5 13.1 14.1 14.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 84 16 100 14.1 14.9 12.4 0.7 66.1 62.0 12.8 13.9 14.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 14.0 14.7 13.2 0.7 65.4 62.2 13.0 13.8 14.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 12.1 12.3 12.1 0.6 63.7 60.4 10.8 11.9 12.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 85 15 100 13.6 13.8 11.7 0.4 58.7 58.3 12.6 13.5 14.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 14.9 15.0 14.0 0.6 64.0 60.6 13.4 14.7 15.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 15.2 16.0 15.0 0.7 64.2 61.9 14.3 14.9 16.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 14.0 14.9 12.6 0.6 62.9 61.2 13.1 13.7 15.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 15.7 15.3 16.5 1.2 70.4 65.5 13.4 14.6 15.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 12.5 13.3 11.7 0.7 67.3 62.6 11.8 12.3 13.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 38 62 100 15.1 15.0 16.6 1.1 68.2 64.7 13.3 14.1 14.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 8.5 8.8 9.4 0.6 64.9 61.3 7.6 8.2 8.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 14.2 14.8 15.4 0.7 64.5 61.9 13.2 13.9 14.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 39 61 100 14.7 14.9 16.2 1.1 69.1 64.6 12.8 13.4 14.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 43 57 100 14.6 14.6 16.2 0.9 66.5 63.7 12.7 13.7 14.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 14.4 14.8 13.8 0.7 66.5 62.6 13.2 14.2 14.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 14.2 14.4 14.8 0.7 61.2 59.9 13.0 13.9 14.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 12.8 13.8 11.6 0.7 64.4 62.5 11.9 12.4 13.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 13.9 14.5 15.6 0.8 62.4 61.1 12.6 13.5 14.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 13.3 13.9 14.2 0.7 63.8 62.5 12.1 13.1 14.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 10.6 11.8 11.0 0.7 67.2 62.3 9.0 10.3 11.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 42 58 100 15.5 15.5 16.7 1.0 67.0 63.7 13.2 14.3 15.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------