***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.05.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.06.2017.-11.06.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 38 62 100 15.1 15.2 15.8 1.0 69.6 64.5 13.7 14.8 15.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 15.5 15.8 15.9 1.2 73.7 65.6 13.2 14.2 15.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 16.9 16.9 15.9 1.0 70.5 65.0 14.8 16.0 16.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 39 61 100 11.9 12.1 13.1 0.8 67.6 62.7 9.7 10.6 12.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 39 61 100 13.3 13.3 13.1 0.8 68.3 63.2 11.9 12.9 13.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 12.3 12.7 11.2 0.9 72.8 66.9 10.8 11.4 12.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 31 69 100 15.3 15.4 15.9 1.2 72.3 65.0 13.3 14.7 15.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 6.3 7.2 10.8 0.8 68.9 62.6 5.1 5.8 6.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 14.4 14.3 13.4 0.8 70.5 64.1 13.0 13.7 14.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 13.9 13.9 11.8 0.8 69.1 63.4 13.0 13.3 13.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 41 59 100 13.8 13.8 12.4 0.8 68.7 63.1 12.6 13.3 13.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 39 61 100 12.0 12.1 11.5 0.7 68.2 62.2 10.9 11.4 12.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 38 62 100 13.5 13.5 11.1 0.7 66.2 63.0 12.6 12.9 13.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 32 68 100 15.0 15.0 13.3 0.7 67.8 62.3 13.7 14.1 15.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 14.6 14.9 14.3 0.8 66.0 63.0 13.8 14.4 14.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 40 60 100 14.2 14.4 12.0 0.8 68.3 63.6 12.8 13.8 14.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 15.5 15.8 15.8 1.2 73.1 65.8 13.4 15.0 15.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 38 62 100 12.9 12.9 11.0 0.7 68.5 63.2 11.7 12.5 12.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 15.1 15.2 15.8 1.1 72.6 65.3 13.5 14.5 15.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 39 61 100 8.5 8.5 8.8 0.7 66.6 61.9 7.4 8.0 8.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 14.5 14.4 14.8 0.9 69.6 64.1 13.1 13.7 14.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 39 61 100 14.6 14.5 15.4 1.0 70.0 64.6 13.2 13.9 14.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 14.7 14.9 15.4 1.0 70.7 64.4 13.2 14.1 14.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 34 66 100 14.3 14.4 13.1 0.8 69.1 63.6 13.0 13.8 14.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 14.2 14.7 14.2 0.8 66.3 62.1 13.2 14.0 14.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 13.0 13.1 11.0 0.8 69.9 65.0 11.7 12.2 12.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 41 59 100 15.0 14.9 15.0 1.0 67.9 63.5 12.8 13.9 14.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 13.2 13.0 13.4 0.8 67.8 63.1 11.9 12.5 12.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 11.6 11.1 10.3 0.7 67.8 62.1 9.8 10.5 11.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 15.5 15.7 16.0 1.1 71.8 65.0 13.2 15.0 15.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------