***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.05.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.05.2017.-28.05.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 89 11 100 12.2 13.6 13.2 0.1 57.2 54.6 11.0 12.0 13.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 89 11 100 12.7 13.4 13.3 0.4 63.9 60.9 11.6 12.6 13.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 90 10 100 14.6 14.9 13.3 0.1 55.5 54.4 13.1 14.5 15.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 9.5 8.5 10.2 -0.6 38.5 39.9 7.9 9.1 10.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 11.7 10.1 11.0 -0.4 41.5 42.7 9.6 11.4 11.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 69 31 0 100 8.1 7.8 7.8 -1.1 23.6 26.3 9.1 9.8 10.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 89 11 100 12.6 13.5 13.3 0.4 63.2 60.4 11.5 12.5 13.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 5.5 3.8 8.2 -0.6 38.5 39.4 3.2 5.4 5.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 12.3 11.6 11.4 -0.1 47.2 47.8 10.9 12.0 13.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 12.0 11.4 9.4 -0.3 43.3 44.0 10.8 11.7 12.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 11.9 11.1 10.5 -0.4 39.6 41.0 10.9 11.7 12.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 10.2 8.9 9.2 -0.6 38.3 39.4 8.8 9.8 10.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 67 33 0 100 9.3 10.1 9.3 -0.7 31.4 34.0 10.2 11.3 11.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 93 7 100 12.6 13.1 11.4 0.3 57.5 56.6 11.5 12.4 13.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 13.3 11.8 11.9 -0.5 37.8 39.4 11.6 13.0 13.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 10.5 11.1 9.9 -0.7 34.5 36.2 11.1 12.3 13.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 88 12 100 13.4 13.8 13.2 0.6 66.2 63.2 11.6 13.3 13.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 85 15 100 10.4 9.7 8.9 -0.1 47.4 47.9 9.4 10.1 11.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 88 12 100 12.8 13.5 13.2 0.4 61.3 59.3 11.4 12.6 13.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 6.7 5.8 6.8 -0.5 39.1 41.2 5.6 6.4 7.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 88 12 100 11.9 11.6 12.5 -0.1 49.0 49.9 10.5 11.7 12.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 89 11 100 12.4 12.9 13.2 0.6 63.8 62.0 10.8 12.3 13.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 86 14 100 12.6 12.9 13.0 0.3 57.9 57.6 11.1 12.5 13.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 90 10 100 12.1 12.3 11.2 0.1 54.9 53.6 10.7 11.9 13.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 87 13 100 12.7 12.1 12.0 -0.4 44.5 45.3 11.0 12.5 13.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 67 33 0 100 9.2 9.5 8.2 -0.8 30.1 32.9 9.6 10.7 11.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 89 11 100 12.8 12.7 12.7 0.0 53.3 52.0 11.7 12.7 13.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 11.3 10.5 10.8 -0.5 37.7 39.1 10.4 11.1 11.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 85 15 100 9.6 9.1 8.0 -0.3 43.9 45.0 7.5 9.5 9.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 88 12 100 12.9 13.3 13.4 0.3 61.2 58.6 11.5 12.7 13.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------