***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.05.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.05.2018.-17.06.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 57.6 75.7 73.0 101.8 58.7 50.1 58.4 68.5 86.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 59.3 80.3 67.4 104.6 58.0 52.4 60.2 74.4 83.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 94.7 96.2 75.6 107.3 65.1 54.3 68.0 86.8 97.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 93.2 95.2 83.9 105.7 61.6 55.3 69.9 89.5 96.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 76.5 80.3 81.2 107.2 62.5 55.2 48.7 72.4 87.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 83.6 86.4 112.5 123.3 74.1 67.7 57.8 75.4 82.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 47.0 64.7 66.5 101.8 55.3 50.7 43.4 62.6 73.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 102.5 117.8 103.7 115.7 67.8 61.8 83.9 96.4 117.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 74.4 77.3 84.1 107.6 63.4 55.3 55.2 68.7 79.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 88.3 92.5 102.3 111.5 65.0 58.4 65.9 85.1 92.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 68.9 70.8 85.9 114.0 67.2 59.0 56.4 64.9 70.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 39 61 100 74.1 73.9 90.4 117.7 70.1 62.4 50.2 63.2 70.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 79.0 84.5 100.1 122.0 72.9 65.0 48.8 59.6 75.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 99.7 101.8 99.1 109.3 64.6 56.5 85.7 91.1 103.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 63.1 65.4 78.0 108.0 63.3 55.5 51.3 60.8 68.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 76.1 71.9 90.4 117.9 70.2 62.6 42.6 59.1 66.4 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 47.6 71.6 63.3 100.5 54.3 49.1 53.6 71.2 85.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 40 60 100 96.7 99.5 112.6 115.3 68.3 61.6 75.5 84.2 97.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 86.6 88.3 69.3 105.5 58.6 53.4 67.2 79.3 98.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 38 62 100 91.3 93.4 115.6 120.3 70.8 65.5 61.5 74.6 90.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 73.3 77.7 80.4 109.6 67.0 55.5 60.9 70.9 77.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 59.2 79.5 66.4 102.7 55.3 51.4 63.2 75.9 85.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 71.6 77.9 72.5 106.0 62.4 54.6 59.0 65.3 78.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 86.7 104.0 95.9 112.3 67.4 58.7 72.7 79.3 101.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 75.0 85.3 82.2 103.5 60.0 50.1 57.2 66.6 89.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 75.2 75.3 95.2 124.7 72.9 66.8 46.4 65.0 71.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 58.5 81.0 78.1 100.9 57.4 48.7 62.8 77.6 89.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 64.2 72.1 86.5 111.2 65.0 58.9 48.8 60.1 72.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 39 61 100 116.7 121.3 115.4 118.5 69.7 64.1 85.3 97.4 120.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 62.4 83.9 69.3 105.1 60.0 53.2 66.1 77.1 85.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------