***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.05.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.06.2018.-17.06.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 9.1 19.5 14.8 88.4 56.2 46.0 5.1 18.8 20.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 9.1 22.8 12.4 80.5 54.5 44.7 6.8 16.5 29.0 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 10.7 33.8 13.9 84.8 55.4 45.2 7.6 20.5 36.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 11.7 25.6 15.6 87.9 58.7 46.2 9.8 23.4 32.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 19.9 18.6 14.7 90.0 56.6 46.4 6.2 16.1 25.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 14.2 15.4 22.1 108.8 62.5 52.3 6.3 11.1 19.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 6.7 12.2 12.5 80.2 53.7 44.5 6.5 11.7 21.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 21.0 18.1 19.6 98.3 56.1 49.4 10.9 17.0 21.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 8.8 18.3 15.3 89.8 55.2 47.0 10.5 15.3 25.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 13.6 26.8 19.5 94.7 56.0 48.5 10.0 23.0 33.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 15.5 16.6 14.7 94.7 56.7 47.5 9.0 13.0 19.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 5.5 11.4 16.9 100.0 57.9 50.0 4.7 8.8 16.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 14.0 13.1 20.7 114.5 62.2 54.2 7.9 11.4 17.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 27.0 22.1 19.0 84.9 53.8 48.0 12.0 22.1 29.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 3.4 16.2 12.7 78.8 58.2 44.7 2.7 8.3 19.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 13.7 11.5 17.5 105.9 60.5 50.8 3.4 9.6 13.6 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 5.3 15.7 12.0 79.5 56.7 45.8 4.8 9.0 22.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 21.7 25.4 23.2 100.0 60.2 51.2 6.3 15.3 31.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 11.3 21.3 12.9 81.0 55.8 45.1 12.6 20.7 23.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 23.7 27.9 23.5 106.6 61.4 52.4 5.9 17.9 35.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 16.8 13.6 14.4 88.5 57.4 46.8 8.2 12.4 20.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 9.5 19.8 13.5 80.3 57.9 45.6 4.6 17.0 21.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 7.6 18.3 13.3 80.9 55.9 46.3 4.6 16.5 27.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 29.6 27.7 18.5 89.6 56.6 48.8 11.5 25.3 33.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 19.8 13.4 17.1 93.4 59.7 47.6 6.8 12.1 16.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 3.9 10.6 17.0 102.0 61.8 50.3 5.1 8.7 11.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 8.9 22.5 16.4 90.4 56.8 46.8 8.0 16.8 25.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 7.3 20.0 15.1 86.6 58.5 46.1 6.6 14.9 24.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 30.8 33.2 23.4 102.1 59.9 51.6 12.5 26.7 36.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 8.7 18.9 12.9 82.0 54.0 43.9 6.2 18.1 25.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------