***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.05.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.06.2018.-10.06.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 11.0 28.5 18.2 100.1 59.7 46.3 8.9 20.8 30.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 10.6 25.4 16.0 97.9 60.8 46.6 13.9 22.2 26.0 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 9.6 29.0 19.5 108.1 64.9 48.1 8.4 17.4 29.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 8.6 20.0 19.6 101.2 59.8 47.9 8.7 15.4 27.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 7.2 22.2 18.3 98.9 60.2 48.7 8.1 13.7 22.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 17.3 17.2 23.7 103.4 59.6 49.0 10.1 14.7 18.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 7.1 20.3 15.4 92.7 59.3 44.6 9.0 12.8 25.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 29.1 27.8 21.9 100.3 61.3 49.8 15.7 24.3 30.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 21.1 21.3 19.2 96.7 60.6 47.6 10.9 17.7 23.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 7.5 20.3 22.3 97.8 60.3 48.0 6.7 11.8 23.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 8.7 20.3 16.9 98.4 58.9 47.8 7.1 16.6 22.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 15.6 14.2 19.2 103.6 61.5 50.7 5.6 10.3 14.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 14.2 17.9 22.6 115.2 63.9 54.2 4.6 9.8 18.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 13.5 30.7 25.4 107.3 64.9 49.5 13.4 18.9 31.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 5.7 16.7 19.2 107.9 66.8 48.0 2.5 11.4 16.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 3.7 12.1 19.6 106.4 61.4 50.7 4.9 6.4 14.3 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 9.5 18.0 13.0 82.1 52.0 40.8 10.1 17.8 25.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 19.9 21.5 27.6 108.3 66.2 51.6 10.9 18.0 21.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 11.3 23.5 17.0 101.8 62.3 47.6 12.6 18.8 24.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 19.7 20.1 27.3 110.6 66.8 56.1 6.5 15.9 20.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 7.8 20.5 19.4 105.8 62.7 47.7 7.5 15.2 28.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 10.7 20.8 14.3 90.3 57.2 44.4 11.4 17.9 24.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 9.8 21.0 18.0 102.8 62.0 46.9 11.8 18.8 21.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 14.6 25.6 24.3 109.2 66.6 50.3 13.1 20.8 25.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 8.6 23.2 20.0 100.8 59.5 46.2 9.8 17.2 28.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 14.5 18.7 21.1 115.8 66.4 55.4 5.2 11.6 18.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 8.3 24.3 19.3 98.0 58.1 46.1 5.7 17.2 29.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 4.3 15.8 19.7 103.6 62.9 47.8 5.4 8.2 16.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 14.8 26.4 27.5 108.3 65.8 52.5 14.3 21.3 26.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 11.8 24.6 17.5 105.1 64.0 48.6 13.4 18.5 25.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------