***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.05.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.05.2018.-03.06.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 19.7 18.0 19.8 104.5 60.5 52.4 5.7 15.9 19.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 15.6 29.2 20.5 120.4 67.0 56.6 5.7 9.4 27.6 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 8.9 23.2 20.0 112.1 64.3 54.4 6.2 17.2 24.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 19.4 28.7 23.6 112.1 65.3 54.6 10.0 14.8 28.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 16.3 21.3 23.2 116.7 65.5 56.1 9.7 13.8 21.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 18.2 17.6 27.4 115.1 63.5 54.4 11.6 15.1 18.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 11.6 10.8 19.9 114.5 63.7 56.0 3.5 7.4 11.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 29.1 38.1 24.1 113.3 64.7 53.7 20.4 24.9 38.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 18.1 20.4 23.0 112.3 65.7 53.9 6.0 15.8 20.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 20.1 23.7 24.6 112.2 65.3 53.4 9.2 16.5 24.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 17.2 20.8 24.1 115.1 67.3 55.0 8.5 15.3 19.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 17.0 16.9 23.3 115.4 64.9 55.2 10.8 14.3 17.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 16.4 25.9 28.1 140.6 73.5 62.3 8.3 13.9 21.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 28.1 45.7 27.9 124.4 69.3 56.4 13.6 20.4 29.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 12.3 16.4 22.8 113.2 66.6 53.9 4.3 10.1 16.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 15.4 22.3 24.8 122.6 68.5 56.7 6.7 12.4 21.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 12.1 17.1 18.8 114.0 64.5 55.7 4.1 9.5 17.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 22.3 28.3 27.3 120.2 65.8 55.1 12.0 18.8 28.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 13.4 21.8 19.8 117.5 65.6 56.0 3.9 8.1 22.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 17.1 26.3 29.5 135.4 74.0 61.0 8.5 14.4 23.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 17.7 18.7 21.1 109.7 65.4 52.3 6.5 14.1 19.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 13.0 16.0 19.6 117.6 65.0 56.7 4.9 10.1 16.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 6.0 20.1 19.3 112.4 66.1 54.5 6.2 10.3 20.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 11.9 27.5 25.3 121.5 67.3 55.4 13.1 20.5 26.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 18.4 20.5 22.9 109.7 63.9 52.5 6.3 16.5 20.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 13.7 19.7 26.1 125.8 67.8 59.0 4.8 10.8 19.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 15.3 15.7 21.3 103.1 59.8 51.7 5.3 11.6 19.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 16.3 16.9 23.1 114.3 66.6 54.6 6.2 14.7 16.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 28.3 36.5 29.9 129.5 71.2 59.0 14.3 23.9 34.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 4.9 18.5 19.7 113.2 64.6 54.8 6.1 9.1 19.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------