***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.05.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.05.2018.-27.05.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 13.5 15.3 20.2 113.2 64.6 56.4 7.5 12.5 15.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 9.4 11.2 18.5 118.1 66.6 57.2 4.6 7.2 11.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 12.0 15.0 22.1 122.4 68.5 59.4 5.9 10.0 14.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 16.1 23.9 25.1 118.3 66.7 58.5 8.2 12.7 22.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 16.6 20.2 25.0 119.1 67.6 59.6 6.5 13.0 19.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 21 79 100 16.4 20.3 39.3 162.5 85.1 75.6 4.3 10.4 15.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 8.8 11.5 18.8 118.6 65.8 56.3 3.7 7.3 11.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 38 62 100 28.2 33.0 38.1 142.8 77.3 68.5 14.8 19.8 29.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 18.2 14.8 26.7 127.8 70.5 63.8 6.3 10.2 14.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 39 61 100 21.0 22.7 35.9 134.8 74.3 66.1 11.2 15.1 20.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 41 59 100 15.6 17.1 30.2 138.6 75.4 65.6 5.1 9.4 15.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 19.7 23.9 31.0 146.1 77.6 68.4 5.2 11.4 16.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 9.8 17.3 28.7 118.4 68.6 62.6 4.3 7.5 13.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 85 15 100 15.1 17.9 26.9 120.8 68.4 61.2 9.4 13.3 17.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 10.6 19.6 23.3 128.2 71.2 61.8 5.6 7.3 16.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 40 60 100 16.8 18.9 28.5 133.5 73.5 65.9 3.4 6.8 15.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 8.3 12.2 19.4 125.5 71.0 59.2 5.4 6.8 11.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 41 59 100 20.3 23.5 34.5 133.1 73.1 66.8 7.8 14.4 16.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 11.4 13.7 19.6 120.6 69.1 58.3 4.8 9.8 13.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 40 60 100 19.1 20.1 35.4 128.0 71.2 65.1 8.3 15.9 17.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 11.3 16.4 25.5 130.4 71.7 63.3 6.2 9.7 12.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 9.8 11.4 19.0 123.7 70.7 58.9 6.1 8.8 10.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 9.3 13.3 21.8 127.2 72.6 61.0 4.5 7.7 11.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 86 14 100 13.2 20.8 27.8 128.2 70.7 64.6 6.7 11.2 16.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 13.0 18.4 22.1 108.6 62.4 55.2 5.9 9.4 19.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 40 60 100 20.3 26.7 31.0 149.6 79.1 68.3 7.1 11.3 19.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 14.6 15.2 21.1 111.7 64.3 56.4 7.1 12.3 15.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 36 64 100 17.8 19.9 28.5 134.6 73.5 64.0 5.0 10.1 17.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 39 61 100 25.5 27.6 34.5 134.1 73.3 66.4 11.9 19.0 26.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 11.3 12.4 19.2 119.1 66.9 57.7 7.0 10.0 12.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------