***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.05.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.05.2018.-17.06.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 38 62 100 25.8 26.1 25.1 0.9 71.7 65.1 24.0 24.7 26.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 25.1 26.0 25.2 0.9 72.4 64.7 24.3 24.8 25.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 24.9 26.2 25.2 0.8 69.2 63.9 24.3 24.6 25.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 18.3 18.4 22.0 0.4 63.9 59.0 17.2 18.1 18.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 25.7 26.0 23.0 0.6 65.9 62.1 24.6 25.4 26.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 24.2 24.5 20.0 0.1 57.9 54.4 22.9 23.9 24.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 24.9 25.7 25.1 0.8 71.9 63.9 23.5 24.7 25.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 13.6 13.6 20.5 0.3 59.2 56.1 12.5 13.3 14.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 25.1 25.5 23.6 0.7 68.3 63.3 23.8 24.8 25.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 24.8 25.3 21.7 0.5 63.0 59.0 23.9 24.5 25.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 25.4 25.8 22.7 0.5 63.2 59.5 24.2 25.1 25.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 24.4 24.6 21.7 0.4 61.2 57.8 23.3 24.2 24.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 25.4 26.0 21.5 0.3 59.1 56.4 24.2 25.1 26.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 84 16 100 24.9 25.6 23.2 0.6 63.0 60.1 24.0 24.7 25.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 26.1 26.1 23.6 0.5 65.9 60.7 25.2 25.9 26.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 26.0 26.2 22.0 0.3 60.4 57.3 24.9 25.7 26.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 44 56 100 25.2 25.3 25.2 1.1 72.3 67.2 23.4 24.5 25.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 24.6 24.6 21.0 0.4 61.8 57.7 23.2 24.4 24.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 44 56 100 25.2 25.5 25.3 1.0 73.7 66.4 23.8 24.4 25.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 19.9 20.0 18.4 0.2 57.4 54.7 18.7 19.6 20.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 25.2 25.8 24.6 0.7 67.6 62.8 23.9 24.8 25.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 47 53 100 25.6 26.0 25.0 1.1 72.4 67.2 23.8 24.8 25.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 41 59 100 25.7 26.3 25.4 1.2 75.5 69.5 24.2 24.7 25.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 24.4 25.2 23.1 0.6 64.7 60.7 23.7 24.1 25.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 40 60 100 26.0 26.1 23.5 0.8 70.4 63.8 24.1 25.0 25.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 25.1 25.4 21.0 0.5 63.7 60.7 23.8 24.9 25.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 39 61 100 25.6 25.8 24.3 0.8 71.9 64.1 23.9 24.8 25.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 26.1 26.2 22.4 0.3 61.3 57.4 25.0 25.9 26.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 19.7 19.9 20.0 0.3 59.6 56.4 18.4 19.4 20.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 25.0 25.9 25.2 0.8 71.8 63.9 24.0 24.8 25.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------