***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.05.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.06.2018.-17.06.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 27.2 27.8 26.6 1.0 65.6 60.1 25.3 26.8 27.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 26.6 27.6 26.6 1.0 66.3 60.0 25.2 26.0 27.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 27.7 26.9 26.7 1.0 65.8 59.6 25.2 26.2 26.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 20.1 20.7 24.0 0.6 60.8 57.9 18.2 19.6 20.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 27.2 26.8 24.4 0.6 59.7 57.7 25.6 26.6 27.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 26.0 26.0 21.5 0.2 54.0 53.3 24.4 25.7 26.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 26.5 26.7 26.5 0.9 64.7 59.3 24.5 25.9 26.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 15.1 14.7 22.1 0.3 55.2 53.9 13.6 14.6 16.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 26.5 26.6 24.8 0.7 59.6 57.8 24.9 25.7 26.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 26.5 26.3 23.1 0.4 57.9 55.6 24.8 25.9 26.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 26.9 26.8 23.9 0.4 58.2 56.1 25.5 26.3 27.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 25.9 25.8 23.3 0.3 55.7 54.5 24.6 25.5 26.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 27.0 26.6 22.4 0.2 53.4 53.5 25.5 26.5 27.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 26.3 26.0 24.3 0.6 60.8 56.3 24.4 25.5 26.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 27.9 28.7 25.0 0.7 63.1 58.9 26.3 27.5 28.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 27.8 27.7 23.3 0.4 56.9 55.2 26.3 27.2 28.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 26.0 26.7 26.5 1.0 65.3 60.2 24.1 25.4 26.7 29 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 23.8 25.7 22.5 0.4 57.9 54.7 24.1 25.3 26.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 25.9 27.0 26.7 1.1 68.1 60.8 24.7 25.3 26.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 21.2 20.8 19.7 0.1 54.5 52.4 20.1 20.6 22.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 24.9 26.9 25.8 0.7 62.2 58.3 25.1 26.2 27.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 26.6 27.3 26.2 1.0 66.3 60.1 24.4 26.0 27.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 39 61 100 27.5 26.9 26.6 1.2 69.1 61.6 24.9 25.6 26.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 26.2 25.8 24.4 0.6 60.4 56.8 24.6 25.6 25.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 27.2 27.4 24.7 0.8 63.5 59.2 25.4 26.7 27.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 26.5 26.7 22.6 0.5 56.9 56.1 25.4 26.1 27.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 26.4 27.3 25.6 0.9 64.5 59.5 24.8 25.8 27.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 28.0 28.3 24.1 0.5 60.2 57.1 26.6 27.5 28.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 21.3 21.0 21.5 0.3 56.9 53.5 19.3 20.6 21.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 26.3 26.4 26.6 1.0 65.8 59.7 24.9 25.6 26.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------