***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.05.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.06.2018.-10.06.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 26.4 27.0 25.7 1.2 66.2 61.5 23.8 25.9 27.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 24.3 27.7 25.7 1.2 66.7 60.9 24.2 26.0 27.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 26.7 27.2 25.8 1.2 65.0 61.0 24.1 26.3 27.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 19.3 20.0 23.0 0.8 61.1 58.1 16.5 18.7 20.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 27.0 27.4 23.6 0.9 60.1 59.3 25.0 26.6 27.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 25.2 24.8 20.7 0.4 53.1 54.5 23.6 24.7 26.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 23.9 26.6 25.7 1.1 65.6 60.4 23.9 25.2 26.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 14.4 14.4 21.3 0.5 54.7 55.5 12.7 14.1 15.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 26.6 26.9 24.0 1.0 61.4 60.1 24.2 26.4 26.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 26.4 26.8 22.3 0.8 57.8 57.8 24.3 26.1 27.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 26.7 27.1 23.0 0.7 57.3 57.2 25.0 26.4 27.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 25.3 25.9 22.4 0.5 54.8 55.2 23.4 24.9 26.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 26.7 26.6 21.6 0.4 52.9 54.1 24.8 26.3 27.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 26.2 26.8 23.5 0.8 59.5 58.1 24.5 25.7 27.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 27.3 27.6 23.9 0.8 61.1 58.7 24.6 26.9 27.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 27.4 27.5 22.4 0.5 55.1 55.6 25.7 27.2 27.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 33 67 100 26.7 26.9 25.8 1.4 69.2 62.1 23.4 25.1 26.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 26.1 26.0 21.7 0.7 55.8 57.3 23.6 25.8 26.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 26.0 26.8 25.8 1.3 67.4 61.4 23.8 25.5 26.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 84 16 100 20.6 20.6 19.0 0.5 53.8 55.1 19.3 20.3 21.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 26.8 27.1 25.0 1.1 63.5 60.4 24.0 26.4 27.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 31 69 100 27.5 27.0 25.5 1.3 68.7 61.9 24.1 25.6 26.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 26.3 27.2 25.7 1.4 67.0 62.0 24.5 25.9 27.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 25.9 26.2 23.5 0.9 59.0 58.9 24.1 25.5 26.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 26.7 27.0 23.9 1.1 65.4 60.8 24.1 26.3 27.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 26.1 26.6 21.8 0.7 59.8 57.6 24.2 25.7 27.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 26.3 27.1 24.8 1.1 66.3 61.2 23.9 25.9 27.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 27.3 27.6 23.1 0.6 58.4 56.8 24.7 26.9 28.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 20.7 20.6 20.7 0.6 54.2 56.2 19.0 20.4 21.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 26.3 27.2 25.7 1.2 65.8 60.6 23.9 25.8 27.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------