***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.05.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.05.2018.-03.06.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 25.3 24.5 24.4 0.4 53.5 54.2 23.3 24.5 25.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 25.2 24.7 24.5 0.4 52.5 53.8 23.6 24.6 25.6 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 22.7 24.8 24.4 0.3 52.1 53.3 23.2 24.6 25.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 15.5 17.6 21.1 -0.1 49.6 49.3 15.9 17.6 18.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 23.2 25.4 22.3 0.1 52.2 52.0 23.8 25.4 26.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 23.8 23.3 19.4 -0.3 46.7 47.9 22.5 23.5 24.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 24.9 24.4 24.4 0.4 54.1 53.7 23.4 24.3 25.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 10.9 12.7 19.9 -0.2 49.3 49.6 11.3 12.8 13.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 22.4 24.9 23.0 0.3 53.1 53.2 22.9 24.5 25.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 22.4 24.7 21.0 0.0 50.5 50.8 22.4 24.6 25.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 22.9 25.0 22.1 0.0 50.8 50.5 23.2 25.0 25.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 21.8 24.0 20.9 -0.1 50.8 50.1 22.4 23.9 24.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 25.1 24.7 21.0 -0.2 48.4 49.1 23.5 24.7 25.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 24.8 24.2 22.6 0.1 49.0 51.9 22.7 24.3 25.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 23.8 25.5 23.0 0.0 50.3 49.8 24.3 25.5 26.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 23.5 25.8 21.4 -0.1 48.8 49.2 23.6 25.8 26.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 24.6 24.4 24.5 0.7 57.2 55.8 23.0 23.9 24.8 29 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 21.7 23.4 20.3 -0.1 49.9 50.3 22.1 23.4 24.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 24.8 24.3 24.6 0.5 54.1 54.9 22.7 24.2 25.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 19.3 18.6 17.9 -0.1 48.2 49.8 17.9 18.8 19.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 25.2 24.8 23.9 0.2 51.0 52.9 23.2 24.5 25.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 24.9 25.3 24.3 0.6 56.9 55.3 23.1 24.2 25.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 25.2 25.1 24.7 0.8 58.3 57.5 23.2 24.6 25.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 22.2 24.3 22.5 0.1 50.8 52.1 22.6 24.2 25.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 25.3 24.9 22.9 0.3 51.8 53.2 23.4 24.8 26.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 22.7 24.7 20.2 0.1 52.4 51.9 23.0 24.6 25.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 24.8 24.4 23.7 0.3 52.9 53.5 23.3 24.2 24.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 23.9 25.8 21.7 -0.2 49.1 48.1 24.3 25.8 26.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 16.5 18.3 19.4 -0.1 49.4 50.4 17.5 18.4 19.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 25.0 24.3 24.4 0.3 51.8 53.0 23.7 24.3 25.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------