***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.05.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.05.2018.-27.05.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 88 12 100 24.6 25.6 23.9 1.0 68.3 66.4 22.9 24.3 25.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 87 13 100 25.1 25.6 24.1 1.0 70.1 66.2 23.5 24.9 25.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 88 12 100 24.8 25.6 23.8 0.9 66.6 64.8 23.2 24.6 25.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 92 8 100 17.4 18.1 19.9 0.4 61.2 58.9 15.6 17.3 18.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 89 11 100 24.7 25.7 21.7 0.9 66.0 64.1 23.2 24.4 25.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 90 10 100 23.0 23.4 18.5 0.3 60.0 57.6 21.6 22.9 23.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 46 54 100 25.1 25.1 23.9 0.9 69.1 64.9 23.0 24.6 25.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 87 13 100 12.8 13.1 18.9 0.4 62.9 60.1 10.9 12.6 13.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 88 12 100 23.9 25.3 22.7 1.0 66.6 65.5 22.2 23.6 25.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 87 13 100 24.0 24.4 20.3 0.7 63.4 61.9 22.4 23.8 24.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 89 11 100 24.1 25.3 21.7 0.7 65.1 62.3 22.6 23.9 25.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 87 13 100 23.0 23.8 20.1 0.7 65.5 62.4 21.9 22.7 23.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 87 13 100 24.2 24.8 21.0 0.7 64.8 62.0 22.7 23.9 24.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 45 55 100 25.5 25.6 22.4 0.8 68.4 63.4 23.0 24.5 25.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 90 10 100 25.1 25.6 22.5 0.4 60.1 58.2 22.9 24.9 25.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 89 11 100 24.5 25.4 20.9 0.6 64.0 60.9 23.5 24.2 25.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 39 61 100 24.9 24.9 24.1 1.3 72.4 69.3 23.1 24.5 24.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 86 14 100 23.3 24.3 19.3 0.5 64.5 60.9 22.2 23.0 24.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 44 56 100 25.2 25.4 24.2 1.2 72.1 68.1 23.1 24.5 25.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 87 13 100 18.7 19.5 17.0 0.4 64.0 60.2 16.9 18.3 19.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 88 12 100 24.3 25.2 23.5 0.9 66.7 64.3 23.1 24.1 25.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 33 67 100 25.7 25.7 24.1 1.4 73.8 70.1 23.6 24.7 25.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 32 68 100 25.8 26.2 24.5 1.7 76.0 71.9 23.3 24.7 25.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 48 52 100 24.6 25.0 22.1 0.8 67.4 63.2 22.1 23.8 24.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 88 12 100 24.4 25.2 22.5 0.8 65.8 64.5 23.2 24.1 25.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 43 57 100 24.1 24.0 19.3 0.8 67.4 64.6 22.5 23.3 24.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 87 13 100 24.4 24.9 23.2 0.9 66.1 64.7 23.2 24.2 24.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 91 9 100 25.0 25.5 20.8 0.3 59.6 57.4 23.0 24.8 25.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 87 13 100 18.9 19.1 18.6 0.5 63.7 60.3 16.8 18.6 19.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 87 13 100 25.0 25.4 24.0 0.9 68.4 65.4 23.2 24.8 25.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------