***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.05.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.06.2018.-17.06.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 15.5 15.4 16.3 0.8 64.3 60.9 14.3 14.7 15.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 15.2 15.1 16.3 0.8 64.3 61.1 13.2 14.2 15.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 30 70 100 16.9 16.7 16.6 0.9 66.6 62.3 15.2 16.2 16.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 11.4 12.2 13.8 0.7 63.8 60.8 10.1 10.8 12.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 33 67 100 13.9 13.7 13.9 0.8 66.4 62.5 12.6 12.9 13.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 12.6 12.5 11.6 0.7 63.2 61.1 11.2 12.0 12.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 15.6 15.3 16.4 0.9 64.0 61.0 13.5 14.3 15.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 7.8 7.3 11.5 0.7 62.8 61.8 5.5 6.6 7.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 14.9 14.8 14.1 0.9 65.7 63.4 13.6 13.9 14.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 14.8 14.4 12.5 0.8 64.9 62.6 13.1 14.1 14.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 14.7 14.3 13.2 0.8 65.4 63.0 13.2 13.5 14.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 32 68 100 12.6 12.4 12.2 0.8 63.9 62.3 10.8 11.8 12.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 14.4 13.7 11.8 0.7 61.3 61.3 12.6 13.3 13.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 15.4 15.0 14.0 0.7 60.6 61.0 13.6 14.6 15.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 15.6 15.7 15.0 0.7 64.0 60.8 14.5 14.8 15.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 15.0 14.8 12.7 0.8 63.7 62.3 13.3 14.0 14.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 15.8 15.7 16.2 0.9 65.0 61.4 13.5 14.5 15.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 34 66 100 13.4 13.4 11.7 0.8 65.5 63.3 11.9 12.4 13.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 31 69 100 15.2 15.2 16.3 0.9 65.9 61.8 13.6 14.1 15.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 9.1 8.7 9.3 0.6 62.3 60.9 7.9 8.4 8.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 14.9 14.8 15.5 0.8 64.1 62.3 13.4 14.0 15.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 31 69 100 14.9 14.7 16.0 0.9 66.7 61.6 13.2 13.5 14.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 31 69 100 14.7 14.8 16.2 0.9 67.5 63.0 13.1 13.5 14.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 14.9 14.7 13.9 0.8 66.6 63.4 13.2 14.3 14.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 14.2 14.5 14.8 0.8 62.5 60.2 13.3 13.9 14.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 13.9 13.6 11.6 0.8 67.1 63.2 11.7 12.8 13.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 14.1 14.4 15.6 0.8 63.6 60.3 13.2 13.7 14.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 13.9 13.7 14.0 0.7 62.8 60.8 12.3 12.9 14.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 11.9 11.7 11.0 0.7 64.5 62.3 9.5 10.5 11.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 15.6 15.2 16.4 0.8 65.1 61.0 13.5 14.5 15.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------