***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.05.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.06.2018.-10.06.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 14.4 14.5 15.5 0.6 58.7 58.1 13.4 14.3 14.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 14.2 14.5 15.5 0.7 62.9 59.2 12.9 13.8 14.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 15.9 16.3 15.7 0.6 61.6 59.3 14.7 15.7 16.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 11.1 11.0 12.8 0.4 57.2 56.3 9.3 10.8 11.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 12.6 12.9 12.9 0.4 60.3 57.9 11.9 12.4 13.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 11.8 11.9 10.8 0.5 57.7 57.8 10.8 11.6 12.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 14.4 14.7 15.6 0.7 63.0 59.6 13.2 14.1 14.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 6.8 6.8 10.7 0.5 62.5 60.1 5.2 5.7 7.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 13.7 13.8 13.2 0.5 61.7 58.4 12.3 13.6 14.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 13.4 13.6 11.6 0.5 61.0 58.9 12.7 13.3 13.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 13.3 13.4 12.3 0.5 61.7 58.6 12.4 13.1 13.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 11.7 11.7 11.4 0.5 60.5 58.8 10.6 11.5 11.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 13.1 13.1 11.0 0.3 53.4 55.5 12.1 12.9 13.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 14.3 14.6 13.1 0.5 62.3 58.1 13.4 14.1 14.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 14.5 14.5 14.0 0.3 57.2 56.4 13.7 14.4 14.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 13.6 13.9 11.8 0.4 56.6 56.7 12.8 13.4 14.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 14.7 14.8 15.5 0.8 64.3 60.0 13.8 14.4 14.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 12.6 12.5 10.8 0.4 60.5 58.8 11.2 12.4 12.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 14.2 14.2 15.6 0.8 64.1 59.9 13.6 14.0 14.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 8.1 8.4 8.7 0.5 61.2 59.6 7.2 7.8 8.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 13.7 14.0 14.6 0.5 60.0 58.5 12.4 13.5 14.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 13.9 14.0 15.3 0.8 64.4 60.5 12.7 13.7 14.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 13.9 14.0 15.4 0.8 65.8 61.0 13.0 13.6 14.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 13.7 13.9 12.9 0.5 62.0 58.9 12.7 13.6 14.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 14.1 14.3 14.0 0.5 59.8 57.8 12.8 13.9 14.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 12.4 12.6 10.8 0.4 58.0 57.3 11.7 12.2 12.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 13.7 14.1 14.8 0.5 59.6 57.9 12.6 13.3 14.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 12.7 12.9 13.1 0.3 55.9 55.6 11.8 12.5 13.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 10.7 10.8 10.2 0.5 62.0 59.3 9.9 10.5 10.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 14.7 14.7 15.6 0.7 62.2 58.9 13.0 14.4 15.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------