***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.05.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.05.2018.-27.05.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 31 69 100 13.7 13.7 14.5 1.2 72.3 70.1 10.9 12.4 13.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 23 77 100 13.3 13.3 14.2 1.1 71.5 69.8 11.3 12.4 12.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 29 71 100 15.2 15.3 14.5 1.1 72.7 71.5 12.9 14.2 15.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 31 69 100 10.1 10.3 11.7 1.0 71.2 70.2 7.7 8.9 10.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 22 78 100 12.3 12.5 12.8 1.3 74.9 74.9 10.0 11.2 12.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 22 78 100 10.8 11.1 9.7 1.1 75.8 74.8 8.8 9.8 10.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 27 73 100 13.4 13.0 14.2 1.0 70.0 68.2 11.0 12.6 13.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 23 77 100 5.8 6.2 9.8 1.1 78.2 76.1 3.1 4.5 5.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 20 80 100 13.1 13.4 13.0 1.4 80.0 77.8 10.8 12.1 12.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 22 78 100 12.8 13.1 11.0 1.2 79.6 77.4 10.7 11.9 12.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 16 84 100 12.5 12.7 12.3 1.3 80.5 78.9 10.9 11.8 12.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 23 77 100 10.9 11.3 10.9 1.2 79.1 76.8 8.7 9.5 10.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 17 83 100 12.2 12.4 11.0 1.2 79.0 77.9 10.2 11.2 11.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 12 88 100 13.6 14.0 12.5 1.3 79.6 78.0 11.2 12.4 13.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 23 77 100 13.7 14.0 13.5 1.2 77.0 75.5 11.8 12.4 13.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 16 84 100 13.1 13.6 11.7 1.3 79.4 78.0 10.8 12.1 12.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 26 74 100 13.8 13.7 13.9 1.0 71.2 69.2 11.1 13.0 13.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 17 83 100 11.5 11.8 10.2 1.1 77.6 76.4 9.4 10.3 11.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 19 81 100 13.6 13.8 14.4 1.3 74.9 73.6 10.6 12.4 13.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 18 82 100 8.0 8.1 8.2 1.0 74.8 74.5 5.7 6.2 7.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 27 73 100 13.0 13.3 14.0 1.2 76.3 74.4 10.5 11.8 12.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 17 83 100 13.1 13.2 14.3 1.4 77.1 75.2 10.1 12.1 12.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 13 87 100 13.2 13.4 14.6 1.6 80.2 79.1 10.5 12.2 12.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 17 83 100 13.1 13.3 12.4 1.1 77.2 75.8 10.7 11.7 12.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 29 71 100 13.3 13.6 13.7 1.2 70.8 70.1 10.6 12.5 13.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 17 83 100 11.8 11.9 10.0 1.1 75.7 75.7 9.7 10.4 11.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 34 66 100 13.6 13.3 14.0 1.1 69.2 68.0 11.0 12.5 12.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 24 76 100 11.6 11.8 12.3 1.0 74.3 73.0 10.1 10.7 11.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 14 86 100 10.1 10.3 9.4 1.1 78.1 77.0 7.3 9.0 9.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 24 76 100 13.7 13.5 14.5 1.1 71.9 70.3 11.0 12.8 13.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------