***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.05.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.05.2012.-17.06.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 41 59 100 9999.0 0.0 72.6 121.2 68.8 62.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 77.3 81.4 69.0 112.8 62.2 59.5 60.2 74.4 83.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 93.7 101.0 73.0 120.8 69.5 62.1 68.0 86.8 97.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 92.9 98.8 89.6 124.3 68.4 62.6 69.9 89.5 96.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 75.8 87.3 86.8 122.4 67.2 62.1 48.7 72.4 87.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 78.1 84.5 107.7 116.1 70.0 58.5 57.8 75.4 82.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 67.0 72.4 70.4 114.0 61.9 60.0 43.4 62.6 73.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 101.9 117.7 87.3 117.0 66.3 60.9 83.9 96.4 117.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 73.6 82.9 84.3 121.2 69.9 62.1 55.2 68.7 79.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 87.7 92.8 93.0 118.8 66.7 61.8 65.9 85.1 92.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 68.4 70.7 79.2 118.9 66.1 60.9 56.4 64.9 70.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 66.8 71.0 73.5 118.1 66.8 60.8 50.2 63.2 70.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 65.6 80.4 88.3 113.2 68.6 58.5 48.8 59.6 75.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 117.4 112.6 86.7 114.6 70.3 60.5 85.7 91.1 103.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 63.2 69.9 83.1 126.1 69.4 62.6 51.3 60.8 68.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 64.6 66.9 85.1 117.3 67.0 59.8 42.6 59.1 66.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 75.8 80.1 63.7 110.1 60.8 58.2 53.6 71.2 85.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 88.1 98.9 100.4 116.5 67.6 61.5 75.5 84.2 97.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 84.8 95.2 69.6 114.4 64.2 60.1 67.2 79.3 98.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 79.4 90.1 102.7 110.6 63.3 59.7 61.5 74.6 90.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 73.0 78.1 75.3 122.2 70.1 62.4 60.9 70.9 77.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 78.9 85.1 62.5 110.2 62.9 58.3 63.2 75.9 85.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 70.8 78.5 73.2 116.0 66.8 61.0 59.0 65.3 78.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 39 61 100 99.9 106.6 88.1 117.7 69.0 61.5 72.7 79.3 101.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 41 59 100 86.4 95.5 90.8 123.4 70.6 64.2 57.2 66.6 89.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 68.7 71.7 78.7 113.2 66.8 57.9 46.4 65.0 71.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 41 59 100 91.3 90.4 84.3 121.2 69.6 63.5 62.8 77.6 89.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 64.2 72.4 86.6 124.3 68.1 61.6 48.8 60.1 72.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 104.0 120.2 99.3 113.5 66.7 60.4 85.3 97.4 120.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 80.3 85.1 71.2 115.8 63.6 60.3 66.1 77.1 85.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------