***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.05.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.06.2012.-17.06.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9999.0 0.0 11.1 79.3 54.8 48.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 9.1 25.4 12.1 84.5 59.2 48.7 6.8 16.5 29.0 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 10.2 30.8 11.4 81.1 54.1 47.5 7.6 20.5 36.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 26.9 24.9 13.4 85.7 57.7 47.6 9.8 23.4 32.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 19.7 18.5 13.2 83.0 56.6 47.3 6.2 16.1 25.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 13.5 11.1 17.0 84.1 49.2 46.3 6.3 11.1 19.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 15.4 17.2 12.4 84.6 58.0 49.0 6.5 11.7 21.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 20.5 17.2 13.3 79.9 51.8 47.1 10.9 17.0 21.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 21.4 18.5 13.1 83.5 55.5 47.8 10.5 15.3 25.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 28.1 24.9 14.3 80.1 51.8 46.7 10.0 23.0 33.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 15.2 13.4 11.8 79.4 50.9 46.2 9.0 13.0 19.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 12.1 9.3 10.2 76.9 50.9 46.5 4.7 8.8 16.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 13.8 11.0 12.1 75.3 46.2 44.9 7.9 11.4 17.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 13.7 22.1 13.7 78.4 49.3 45.1 12.0 22.1 29.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 11.7 17.4 11.9 91.1 59.8 49.5 2.7 8.3 19.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 13.2 9.7 12.4 79.4 50.2 46.2 3.4 9.6 13.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 12.9 18.4 11.5 86.0 61.5 48.7 4.8 9.0 22.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 21.7 13.2 15.4 76.2 47.5 45.1 6.3 15.3 31.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 11.3 21.3 11.8 84.3 57.7 48.2 12.6 20.7 23.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 23.2 17.7 16.3 74.7 49.3 45.4 5.9 17.9 35.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 17.0 13.5 11.4 81.4 56.0 48.1 8.2 12.4 20.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 20.4 19.9 11.0 86.8 58.9 47.9 4.6 17.0 21.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 8.0 17.1 11.8 82.4 52.5 47.0 4.6 16.5 27.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 15.7 23.6 13.6 78.7 48.4 45.7 11.5 25.3 33.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 19.8 12.9 14.4 85.0 55.2 48.8 6.8 12.1 16.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 13.5 9.6 10.0 78.4 53.7 45.5 5.1 8.7 11.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 20.2 20.6 13.6 83.2 54.7 49.2 8.0 16.8 25.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 18.5 19.3 12.7 87.2 57.4 47.9 6.6 14.9 24.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 30.4 24.9 15.5 75.1 47.6 45.1 12.5 26.7 36.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 9.3 21.1 12.1 82.9 57.3 48.5 6.2 18.1 25.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------