***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.05.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.06.2012.-10.06.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 9999.0 0.0 15.4 116.3 70.8 51.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 24.2 25.8 15.4 100.0 64.6 52.1 13.9 22.2 26.0 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 8.7 30.3 15.2 108.7 66.6 49.3 8.4 17.4 29.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 8.6 33.7 18.6 114.2 68.8 48.6 8.7 15.4 27.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 6.4 23.1 17.8 109.2 67.6 48.6 8.1 13.7 22.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 8.6 17.4 23.2 98.1 62.6 50.2 10.1 14.7 18.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 16.3 21.1 15.6 101.6 62.0 53.6 9.0 12.8 25.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 29.1 27.7 17.9 97.5 61.1 50.8 15.7 24.3 30.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 9.4 22.8 16.9 106.9 63.6 48.8 10.9 17.7 23.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 7.2 21.2 18.7 100.8 62.0 50.1 6.7 11.8 23.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 8.1 22.3 15.8 101.5 65.7 49.2 7.1 16.6 22.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 4.9 14.2 14.6 97.9 61.2 50.4 5.6 10.3 14.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 5.7 16.5 18.3 94.2 58.1 48.5 4.6 9.8 18.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 24.2 27.8 18.6 98.3 63.2 51.1 13.4 18.9 31.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 14.5 17.1 16.1 112.0 68.5 49.7 2.5 11.4 16.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 3.4 12.4 17.5 101.4 63.7 49.3 4.9 6.4 14.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 21.4 23.2 14.8 100.2 62.2 54.3 10.1 17.8 25.4 29 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 12.5 19.5 20.9 101.6 61.5 52.2 10.9 18.0 21.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 21.5 23.9 15.1 99.1 65.7 50.8 12.6 18.8 24.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 19.4 19.5 23.0 97.5 57.6 52.1 6.5 15.9 20.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 6.5 28.5 15.2 111.9 67.3 48.5 7.5 15.2 28.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 10.8 25.5 14.4 97.3 67.0 52.7 11.4 17.9 24.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 19.9 21.2 15.1 96.6 64.2 49.1 11.8 18.8 21.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 14.6 24.2 18.2 101.7 63.0 50.7 13.1 20.8 25.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 8.8 28.8 19.1 115.6 68.8 51.1 9.8 17.2 28.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 4.7 13.7 15.4 88.2 53.4 47.2 5.2 11.6 18.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 8.6 30.4 17.9 114.4 67.7 52.8 5.7 17.2 29.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 4.5 16.9 17.9 113.7 69.5 48.8 5.4 8.2 16.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 24.6 25.1 21.2 101.0 62.4 52.8 14.3 21.3 26.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 21.1 25.0 15.5 103.7 64.9 51.2 13.4 18.5 25.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------