***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.05.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.05.2012.-03.06.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 9999.0 0.0 15.0 105.2 67.5 56.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 14.3 24.7 15.3 102.0 64.5 52.7 5.7 9.4 27.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 20.5 22.4 14.5 100.7 62.6 53.7 6.2 17.2 24.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 85 15 100 18.0 30.1 20.1 113.4 69.3 58.0 10.0 14.8 28.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 16.4 19.5 18.5 105.9 64.5 54.9 9.7 13.8 21.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 17.4 19.9 28.6 120.5 69.7 58.4 11.6 15.1 18.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 10.7 10.8 16.2 106.5 63.6 54.1 3.5 7.4 11.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 28.2 40.7 21.3 126.2 70.2 59.7 20.4 24.9 38.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 17.5 20.3 18.0 102.2 62.0 54.9 6.0 15.8 20.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 19.2 23.7 20.9 110.8 65.3 56.3 9.2 16.5 24.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 16.9 21.7 18.1 113.2 68.1 57.0 8.5 15.3 19.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 16.9 22.3 17.6 124.7 70.3 58.3 10.8 14.3 17.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 16.4 22.8 22.6 117.4 68.1 57.1 8.3 13.9 21.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 27.2 22.7 17.7 96.3 56.9 51.0 13.6 20.4 29.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 84 16 100 11.9 17.3 19.9 118.8 71.9 61.1 4.3 10.1 16.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 15.1 22.0 20.6 115.4 66.9 57.3 6.7 12.4 21.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 11.7 16.8 14.6 101.5 63.6 51.1 4.1 9.5 17.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 21.7 24.6 22.5 108.9 61.5 55.2 12.0 18.8 28.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 12.1 15.5 14.7 99.3 62.5 51.9 3.9 8.1 22.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 17.3 23.3 26.5 123.8 68.3 59.5 8.5 14.4 23.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 16.5 18.3 15.2 99.4 64.0 54.3 6.5 14.1 19.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 12.9 14.3 13.2 93.8 60.1 48.7 4.9 10.1 16.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 13.2 18.2 14.8 96.8 62.1 51.6 6.2 10.3 20.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 22.2 23.6 18.3 101.5 60.5 53.1 13.1 20.5 26.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 18.1 20.6 19.4 104.9 64.8 56.3 6.3 16.5 20.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 13.1 20.1 20.6 124.2 68.7 56.5 4.8 10.8 19.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 14.5 19.3 17.8 104.6 66.1 56.3 5.3 11.6 19.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 84 16 100 15.9 17.7 20.3 118.6 70.7 59.8 6.2 14.7 16.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 27.6 30.9 23.2 112.5 62.5 56.0 14.3 23.9 34.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 13.2 16.6 15.1 101.2 63.2 52.9 6.1 9.1 19.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------