***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.05.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.05.2012.-27.05.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 20 80 100 9999.0 0.0 31.2 168.7 83.6 75.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 30 70 100 14.0 18.3 26.2 159.3 80.5 72.7 4.6 7.2 11.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 24 76 100 17.4 27.0 31.9 177.3 86.0 76.4 5.9 10.0 14.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 26 74 100 24.2 31.0 37.5 167.5 84.1 75.2 8.2 12.7 22.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 21 79 100 27.1 38.1 37.3 175.6 86.7 77.5 6.5 13.0 19.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 29 71 100 15.8 18.1 39.0 154.3 79.0 71.9 4.3 10.4 15.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 12.1 15.9 26.2 158.4 79.9 73.2 3.7 7.3 11.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 26 74 100 29.8 35.7 34.7 153.5 81.0 73.0 14.8 19.8 29.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 23 77 100 19.9 37.7 36.2 178.0 87.3 77.4 6.3 10.2 14.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 20 80 100 22.9 38.8 39.0 170.6 85.3 76.1 11.2 15.1 20.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 21 79 100 17.7 26.8 33.4 166.5 84.4 75.1 5.1 9.4 15.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 27 73 100 21.0 30.6 31.1 155.7 82.1 73.6 5.2 11.4 16.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 32 68 100 16.1 20.2 35.4 151.4 78.2 72.1 4.3 7.5 13.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 28 72 100 21.9 28.2 36.7 175.7 86.6 73.8 9.4 13.3 17.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 16.8 22.6 35.3 161.7 78.4 71.3 5.6 7.3 16.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 25 75 100 19.3 24.7 34.6 158.3 80.2 73.6 3.4 6.8 15.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 30 70 100 11.3 13.3 22.8 148.6 78.1 70.6 5.4 6.8 11.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 23 77 100 22.0 25.7 41.6 168.0 84.7 75.7 7.8 14.4 16.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 27 73 100 15.3 26.2 28.0 166.3 82.0 73.9 4.8 9.8 13.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 31 69 100 19.6 21.3 36.8 141.7 77.0 71.0 8.3 15.9 17.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 20 80 100 16.3 21.7 33.4 179.0 84.4 77.9 6.2 9.7 12.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 19 81 100 12.6 14.3 23.9 157.1 79.9 72.4 6.1 8.8 10.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 26 74 100 13.5 18.4 31.5 176.5 84.9 75.4 4.5 7.7 11.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 27 73 100 21.7 29.9 37.9 175.9 87.7 75.6 6.7 11.2 16.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 19 81 100 21.6 28.1 37.9 175.4 86.4 78.6 5.9 9.4 19.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 31 69 100 21.7 26.8 32.7 143.8 79.2 70.4 7.1 11.3 19.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 23 77 100 20.4 26.3 34.9 170.5 84.0 76.9 7.1 12.3 15.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 18.0 23.0 35.8 160.7 80.2 72.2 5.0 10.1 17.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 25 75 100 27.0 33.6 39.4 156.2 82.8 74.1 11.9 19.0 26.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 31 69 100 13.8 18.9 28.5 167.3 82.4 74.5 7.0 10.0 12.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------