***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.05.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.05.2012.-17.06.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 9999.0 0.0 24.4 -0.6 42.8 41.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 25.1 24.8 24.9 -0.2 50.0 48.7 24.3 24.8 25.9 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 24.0 24.4 24.5 -0.6 43.5 42.2 24.3 24.6 25.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 17.1 17.2 22.4 -0.8 36.2 38.4 17.2 18.1 18.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 24.6 24.8 22.6 -0.7 38.4 38.9 24.6 25.4 26.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 23.0 23.0 20.3 -0.7 35.8 38.5 22.9 23.9 24.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 24.9 24.7 24.8 -0.2 49.2 48.4 23.5 24.7 25.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 12.5 12.8 20.8 -0.6 40.9 40.0 12.5 13.3 14.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 24.0 24.1 23.1 -0.7 39.9 40.2 23.8 24.8 25.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 23.8 24.2 21.6 -0.6 41.2 40.6 23.9 24.5 25.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 24.2 24.4 22.1 -0.7 40.1 39.3 24.2 25.1 25.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 23.3 23.6 21.6 -0.7 38.4 38.7 23.3 24.2 24.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 24.2 24.3 21.1 -0.8 34.5 37.8 24.2 25.1 26.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 24.0 24.5 22.9 -0.5 45.5 42.6 24.0 24.7 25.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 25.1 25.5 23.3 -0.6 39.6 40.3 25.2 25.9 26.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 24.9 25.0 21.8 -0.8 36.0 38.2 24.9 25.7 26.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 85 15 100 24.7 25.0 24.9 0.1 53.5 52.3 23.4 24.5 25.3 29 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 23.5 24.1 20.9 -0.6 44.3 41.5 23.2 24.4 24.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 24.7 24.3 24.9 -0.3 48.9 47.3 23.8 24.4 25.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 20.0 19.0 18.6 -0.6 42.4 40.9 18.7 19.6 20.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 24.1 24.3 23.9 -0.7 40.9 39.7 23.9 24.8 25.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 84 16 100 25.0 24.9 24.7 0.0 52.1 51.6 23.8 24.8 25.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 25.1 24.6 24.5 -0.4 47.1 44.9 24.2 24.7 25.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 23.5 24.0 22.7 -0.6 44.5 41.7 23.7 24.1 25.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 24.1 24.3 22.9 -0.7 36.2 39.4 24.1 25.0 25.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 23.9 23.9 20.8 -0.8 34.6 36.9 23.8 24.9 25.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 25.1 24.3 23.6 -0.6 40.0 41.5 23.9 24.8 25.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 25.0 25.1 22.7 -0.8 37.3 38.5 25.0 25.9 26.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 19.8 19.0 19.9 -0.5 44.7 41.9 18.4 19.4 20.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 25.0 24.7 24.9 -0.3 47.1 46.3 24.0 24.8 25.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------