***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.05.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.06.2012.-17.06.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 9999.0 0.0 26.4 0.6 57.4 57.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 27.6 27.8 26.9 1.1 69.0 61.5 25.2 26.0 27.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 26.6 26.6 26.6 0.8 58.8 58.5 25.2 26.2 26.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 20.0 20.6 24.6 0.4 57.5 55.8 18.2 19.6 20.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 27.0 26.7 24.6 0.5 56.9 56.5 25.6 26.6 27.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 25.9 26.4 22.5 0.7 62.4 58.9 24.4 25.7 26.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 27.4 27.1 26.7 1.0 66.9 60.9 24.5 25.9 26.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 84 16 100 15.0 15.0 23.0 0.7 56.4 58.3 13.6 14.6 16.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 26.3 26.6 25.0 0.6 57.6 57.0 24.9 25.7 26.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 26.3 26.3 23.7 0.7 57.4 57.9 24.8 25.9 26.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 26.7 26.7 24.2 0.6 57.3 57.3 25.5 26.3 27.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 84 16 100 25.8 25.9 23.9 0.7 57.6 57.9 24.6 25.5 26.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 26.9 27.5 23.3 0.7 60.4 58.3 25.5 26.5 27.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 26.1 26.1 24.9 0.9 62.4 59.4 24.4 25.5 26.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 27.9 28.5 25.1 0.4 60.0 56.7 26.3 27.5 28.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 27.7 27.8 23.9 0.6 58.9 57.5 26.3 27.2 28.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 38 62 100 26.9 26.9 26.8 1.3 67.9 62.7 24.1 25.4 26.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 25.7 26.1 22.9 0.9 61.2 59.4 24.1 25.3 26.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 40 60 100 26.9 27.0 26.9 1.1 68.6 61.3 24.7 25.3 26.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 21.1 21.8 20.8 0.9 60.3 60.1 20.1 20.6 22.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 26.7 26.8 25.8 0.6 57.3 56.4 25.1 26.2 27.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 38 62 100 27.5 27.6 26.7 1.3 68.7 62.3 24.4 26.0 27.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 26.3 26.8 26.6 1.0 66.1 60.6 24.9 25.6 26.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 26.0 25.8 24.8 0.8 61.0 58.9 24.6 25.6 25.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 27.1 27.1 24.7 0.4 56.3 55.9 25.4 26.7 27.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 85 15 100 26.4 27.3 23.4 0.7 61.7 58.8 25.4 26.1 27.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 26.2 26.5 25.4 0.6 58.0 57.0 24.8 25.8 27.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 28.0 28.3 24.8 0.4 58.7 56.1 26.6 27.5 28.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 21.1 21.3 21.9 0.9 63.1 60.1 19.3 20.6 21.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 26.2 26.8 26.8 1.0 66.6 60.3 24.9 25.6 26.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------