***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.05.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.05.2012.-03.06.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 9999.0 0.0 24.1 -0.7 38.8 43.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 22.7 24.3 24.6 -0.4 44.3 47.8 23.6 24.6 25.6 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 22.6 24.0 24.2 -0.7 40.7 44.1 23.2 24.6 25.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 15.3 16.3 22.2 -0.9 37.1 42.0 15.9 17.6 18.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 23.0 24.1 22.3 -0.9 37.5 42.5 23.8 25.4 26.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 22.0 23.0 20.0 -0.8 43.6 43.6 22.5 23.5 24.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 24.9 24.0 24.5 -0.4 44.4 47.7 23.4 24.3 25.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 10.9 12.2 20.5 -0.9 40.4 43.0 11.3 12.8 13.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 22.2 23.2 22.7 -0.8 40.1 43.2 22.9 24.5 25.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 22.2 23.6 21.3 -0.8 40.2 43.2 22.4 24.6 25.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 22.9 23.6 21.8 -0.9 38.1 42.7 23.2 25.0 25.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 21.7 22.5 21.3 -0.9 40.2 42.4 22.4 23.9 24.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 22.8 24.3 20.7 -0.9 41.2 42.3 23.5 24.7 25.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 22.1 24.2 22.7 -0.7 45.4 44.4 22.7 24.3 25.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 23.9 25.2 22.6 -0.9 40.9 41.9 24.3 25.5 26.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 23.4 24.5 21.4 -0.9 38.6 42.4 23.6 25.8 26.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 24.7 23.7 24.6 -0.1 47.8 50.7 23.0 23.9 24.8 29 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 21.6 23.3 20.7 -0.8 42.7 43.9 22.1 23.4 24.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 22.5 24.0 24.6 -0.4 44.3 47.0 22.7 24.2 25.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 16.9 18.4 18.4 -0.7 42.7 43.8 17.9 18.8 19.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 22.1 23.8 23.5 -0.9 40.9 43.1 23.2 24.5 25.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 25.0 24.3 24.5 -0.1 51.6 50.7 23.1 24.2 25.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 22.5 24.3 24.3 -0.6 43.8 45.6 23.2 24.6 25.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 22.0 23.3 22.5 -0.7 43.3 44.0 22.6 24.2 25.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 22.6 23.7 22.5 -0.8 38.3 43.0 23.4 24.8 26.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 22.5 23.7 20.5 -0.9 42.3 41.8 23.0 24.6 25.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 24.8 23.8 23.3 -0.8 38.7 43.8 23.3 24.2 24.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 23.9 24.9 22.4 -0.9 37.8 41.5 24.3 25.8 26.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 16.4 18.0 19.7 -0.7 42.4 44.1 17.5 18.4 19.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 22.7 24.1 24.5 -0.5 42.0 46.3 23.7 24.3 25.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------