***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.05.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.05.2012.-27.05.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 9999.0 0.0 22.1 -1.3 36.0 37.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 85 15 100 25.1 24.6 22.7 -0.8 43.1 45.3 23.5 24.9 25.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 24.9 23.5 22.0 -1.5 36.9 36.3 23.2 24.6 25.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 15.2 15.3 19.5 -1.6 31.3 33.5 15.6 17.3 18.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 22.4 23.0 20.0 -1.7 30.6 32.5 23.2 24.4 25.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 68 32 0 100 21.2 20.9 17.5 -2.0 26.9 28.4 21.6 22.9 23.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 86 14 100 24.7 24.3 22.7 -0.7 45.2 46.3 23.0 24.6 25.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 10.6 10.8 17.9 -1.8 29.4 31.5 10.9 12.6 13.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 24.2 22.3 20.9 -1.6 33.9 34.2 22.2 23.6 25.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 22.0 22.4 19.0 -1.7 31.3 33.0 22.4 23.8 24.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 22.2 22.3 19.6 -1.8 29.5 31.7 22.6 23.9 25.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 66 34 0 100 20.7 21.0 18.6 -1.9 26.8 30.1 21.9 22.7 23.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 22.3 22.0 18.6 -2.0 23.5 28.7 22.7 23.9 24.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 24.9 23.2 20.5 -1.6 36.6 35.9 23.0 24.5 25.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 25.2 23.2 21.5 -1.2 37.5 37.4 22.9 24.9 25.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 22.9 23.0 19.3 -1.9 26.8 30.2 23.5 24.2 25.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 84 16 100 24.6 24.6 22.7 -0.4 52.9 50.1 23.1 24.5 24.7 29 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 21.6 22.1 18.1 -1.7 31.3 33.3 22.2 23.0 24.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 84 16 100 24.7 23.6 22.5 -1.0 40.3 42.2 23.1 24.5 25.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 64 36 0 100 16.7 16.8 15.7 -1.9 28.7 29.9 16.9 18.3 19.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 24.4 23.2 21.6 -1.7 34.3 33.8 23.1 24.1 25.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 84 16 100 24.9 24.7 22.4 -0.6 48.5 47.6 23.6 24.7 25.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 25.0 23.5 22.0 -1.3 38.1 38.0 23.3 24.7 25.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 24.1 22.1 20.2 -1.6 33.5 34.7 22.1 23.8 24.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 22.5 23.2 20.6 -1.5 32.3 34.3 23.2 24.1 25.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 74 26 0 100 21.5 21.6 17.7 -2.2 22.5 25.4 22.5 23.3 24.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 24.6 23.3 21.5 -1.3 35.2 37.2 23.2 24.2 24.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 23.0 22.9 20.3 -1.6 31.5 33.5 23.0 24.8 25.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 16.9 16.6 17.2 -1.7 30.1 33.0 16.8 18.6 19.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 85 15 100 25.1 23.8 22.6 -1.0 40.2 42.2 23.2 24.8 25.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------