***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.05.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.05.2012.-17.06.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 9999.0 0.0 15.1 0.0 51.3 51.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 13.3 13.3 15.4 0.3 59.4 57.5 12.4 13.0 13.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 14.8 14.7 14.9 0.0 52.8 51.2 14.1 14.5 15.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 10.1 9.9 12.9 -0.2 50.3 47.3 9.0 9.9 10.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 11.9 11.6 12.8 -0.2 50.4 47.5 11.1 11.6 12.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 10.7 10.6 10.8 -0.2 47.8 46.3 10.3 10.6 11.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 13.4 13.5 15.4 0.3 58.7 56.8 12.7 13.2 13.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 5.6 5.5 10.8 -0.1 52.1 48.9 4.9 5.5 5.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 13.0 12.8 13.2 -0.1 49.5 49.6 12.3 12.8 13.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 12.8 12.7 11.6 -0.1 52.0 50.1 12.0 12.7 13.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 12.6 12.5 12.2 -0.2 50.0 47.5 11.9 12.5 12.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 10.6 10.4 11.6 -0.2 48.7 46.4 10.1 10.4 10.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 12.1 11.8 11.2 -0.3 47.2 44.7 11.4 11.9 12.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 13.4 13.3 13.2 -0.1 51.8 50.0 12.8 13.2 13.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 13.6 13.4 13.8 -0.1 53.3 49.3 13.2 13.4 13.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 13.0 12.6 11.9 -0.2 48.3 45.6 12.1 12.8 13.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 13.5 13.8 15.3 0.5 66.1 61.6 13.0 13.3 13.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 11.5 11.3 11.0 0.0 51.1 50.2 10.6 11.3 11.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 13.3 13.3 15.3 0.2 57.6 56.1 12.6 13.1 13.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 7.4 7.2 9.0 -0.1 50.1 49.4 6.8 7.2 7.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 12.9 12.6 14.2 -0.1 49.7 48.7 12.3 12.6 13.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 12.7 12.9 15.2 0.5 63.2 60.7 12.3 12.5 13.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 12.9 13.0 14.8 0.1 55.4 53.5 12.4 12.8 13.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 12.9 12.8 12.9 0.0 51.8 50.0 12.4 12.8 13.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 13.2 13.0 13.7 0.0 51.4 50.4 12.2 13.0 13.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 10.9 11.2 11.2 -0.3 44.1 43.1 10.9 11.4 12.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 13.2 13.0 14.4 0.0 51.5 51.6 12.3 12.9 13.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 11.9 11.7 13.2 -0.2 49.1 46.6 11.2 11.7 12.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 9.7 9.6 10.2 -0.1 49.5 49.8 8.9 9.6 10.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 13.4 13.7 15.4 0.2 56.9 55.0 12.7 13.2 13.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------