***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.05.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.06.2012.-17.06.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 0.0 16.4 0.4 64.6 55.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 14.5 15.1 16.7 0.6 63.7 58.3 13.2 14.2 15.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 16.4 16.6 16.3 0.5 63.3 57.1 15.2 16.2 16.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 11.4 12.1 14.4 0.3 60.4 55.6 10.1 10.8 12.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 13.2 13.4 14.2 0.5 61.3 57.1 12.6 12.9 13.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 12.2 12.3 12.4 0.5 59.5 58.3 11.2 12.0 12.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 14.7 15.3 16.6 0.5 63.6 57.8 13.5 14.3 15.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 7.0 7.2 12.4 0.5 61.4 58.7 5.5 6.6 7.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 14.2 14.6 14.6 0.5 62.5 58.0 13.6 13.9 14.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 14.3 14.4 13.1 0.6 61.6 58.6 13.1 14.1 14.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 13.9 14.1 13.7 0.5 60.5 58.0 13.2 13.5 14.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 12.0 12.1 13.3 0.5 60.0 57.7 10.8 11.8 12.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 13.7 13.6 12.8 0.4 57.4 56.8 12.6 13.3 13.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 14.8 14.8 14.6 0.4 58.7 56.5 13.6 14.6 15.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 15.1 15.3 14.9 0.2 59.1 54.5 14.5 14.8 15.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 14.3 14.5 13.4 0.4 59.7 57.1 13.3 14.0 14.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 14.9 15.6 16.6 0.7 64.3 59.3 13.5 14.5 15.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 12.7 12.8 12.5 0.6 60.5 58.7 11.9 12.4 13.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 14.4 14.9 16.6 0.6 62.9 58.2 13.6 14.1 15.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 8.6 8.6 10.6 0.6 60.5 59.1 7.9 8.4 8.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 14.3 14.5 15.6 0.5 62.4 56.9 13.4 14.0 15.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 13.9 14.4 16.5 0.7 62.3 59.2 13.2 13.5 14.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 13.8 14.4 16.2 0.6 60.8 57.9 13.1 13.5 14.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 14.5 14.5 14.4 0.5 60.5 57.9 13.2 14.3 14.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 12.8 14.5 14.9 0.4 62.0 55.7 13.3 13.9 14.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 13.1 13.1 13.0 0.4 60.1 56.3 11.7 12.8 13.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 14.1 14.4 15.6 0.3 63.8 55.1 13.2 13.7 14.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 13.3 13.5 14.6 0.3 59.6 55.2 12.3 12.9 14.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 11.0 11.3 11.7 0.6 59.5 58.7 9.5 10.5 11.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 14.9 15.2 16.7 0.5 64.5 57.7 13.5 14.5 15.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------