***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.05.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.06.2012.-10.06.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 9999.0 0.0 15.3 -0.7 40.1 40.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 12.4 13.5 15.6 -0.5 43.8 42.8 12.9 13.8 14.6 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 14.0 15.1 15.1 -0.7 36.4 40.0 14.7 15.7 16.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 67 33 0 100 9.0 9.4 13.2 -0.8 34.1 38.1 9.3 10.8 11.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 11.1 12.0 13.0 -0.8 34.1 38.3 11.9 12.4 13.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 10.1 11.2 11.2 -0.7 39.0 40.4 10.8 11.6 12.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 12.9 13.8 15.6 -0.5 42.9 42.4 13.2 14.1 14.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 4.8 5.3 11.2 -0.7 36.4 39.7 5.2 5.7 7.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 12.3 12.6 13.3 -0.7 35.7 39.4 12.3 13.6 14.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 12.2 12.8 11.9 -0.7 36.0 40.0 12.7 13.3 13.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 12.0 12.4 12.4 -0.8 33.6 39.2 12.4 13.1 13.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 10.3 10.7 12.0 -0.8 35.5 39.1 10.6 11.5 11.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 11.4 12.2 11.6 -0.7 36.5 39.7 12.1 12.9 13.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 12.8 13.5 13.3 -0.8 36.0 39.2 13.4 14.1 14.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 65 35 0 100 13.0 13.9 13.8 -0.6 40.3 40.2 13.7 14.4 14.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 12.2 12.9 12.2 -0.8 34.8 39.1 12.8 13.4 14.1 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 13.3 14.3 15.5 -0.3 47.8 44.9 13.8 14.4 14.9 29 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 10.8 11.8 11.2 -0.7 37.7 40.2 11.2 12.4 12.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 12.6 13.9 15.4 -0.6 41.2 42.3 13.6 14.0 14.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 7.0 7.3 9.4 -0.7 39.5 40.5 7.2 7.8 8.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 12.2 12.6 14.4 -0.8 36.2 39.2 12.4 13.5 14.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 12.5 13.4 15.4 -0.3 45.1 45.2 12.7 13.7 14.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 12.3 13.3 15.0 -0.7 37.0 40.7 13.0 13.6 14.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 12.3 12.8 13.1 -0.7 35.7 39.7 12.7 13.6 14.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 12.6 13.5 13.9 -0.6 41.0 40.3 12.8 13.9 14.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 10.8 11.9 11.7 -0.6 36.0 39.6 11.7 12.2 12.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 12.3 13.0 14.6 -0.6 43.1 40.8 12.6 13.3 14.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 66 34 0 100 11.3 11.9 13.4 -0.8 34.3 38.4 11.8 12.5 13.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 9.1 10.0 10.5 -0.7 38.6 40.5 9.9 10.5 10.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 13.0 14.0 15.5 -0.6 41.5 41.6 13.0 14.4 15.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------