***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.05.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.05.2012.-03.06.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 9999.0 0.0 14.6 -0.3 46.8 48.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 12.9 12.8 14.9 0.1 53.2 54.0 11.9 12.7 13.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 14.6 14.0 14.4 -0.3 47.0 47.9 13.5 14.2 15.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 7.5 8.8 12.4 -0.3 45.2 46.3 8.3 8.9 9.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 10.1 11.0 12.2 -0.4 45.0 46.5 10.5 11.0 11.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 10.2 10.0 10.3 -0.4 44.5 46.8 9.6 10.0 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 13.1 13.2 14.9 0.1 54.2 53.8 12.0 12.9 13.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 5.0 4.6 10.4 -0.3 45.7 47.3 3.9 4.8 5.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 12.4 11.9 12.5 -0.3 46.1 47.2 11.5 12.1 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 12.2 11.9 11.1 -0.3 46.9 47.5 11.5 11.9 12.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 11.8 11.4 11.6 -0.4 44.7 46.5 11.0 11.6 12.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 10.4 10.1 11.1 -0.4 43.9 46.4 9.6 10.1 10.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 11.5 11.1 10.7 -0.4 46.6 47.2 10.7 11.2 11.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 12.7 12.4 12.7 -0.2 48.8 48.8 12.1 12.4 13.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 12.4 12.7 13.1 -0.3 46.6 46.6 12.3 12.8 13.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 11.3 12.1 11.3 -0.4 45.4 46.2 11.6 12.2 12.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 13.2 13.2 14.9 0.4 59.7 57.9 12.1 12.9 13.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 10.9 10.6 10.5 -0.3 47.7 48.1 10.0 10.7 11.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 12.8 12.6 14.8 0.1 51.6 52.6 12.1 12.5 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 6.8 6.5 8.7 -0.2 49.9 49.1 5.9 6.5 7.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 12.5 11.8 13.6 -0.4 44.9 46.5 11.5 12.3 12.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 12.6 12.8 14.8 0.4 58.7 57.5 11.5 12.4 13.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 12.4 12.0 14.3 -0.1 48.8 50.1 11.3 12.0 13.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 12.2 11.7 12.4 -0.3 46.4 47.6 11.1 11.9 12.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 12.7 12.3 13.1 -0.2 45.3 48.2 11.4 12.5 12.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 11.0 10.8 10.8 -0.3 47.1 47.3 10.3 10.9 11.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 12.9 12.5 13.9 -0.2 46.5 48.7 11.4 12.7 13.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 10.4 11.2 12.6 -0.4 45.3 45.3 10.7 11.4 11.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 9.4 8.9 9.8 -0.2 48.2 48.8 8.0 9.0 10.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 13.0 12.8 14.9 0.0 51.0 51.7 12.1 12.8 13.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------