***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.05.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.05.2012.-27.05.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 91 9 100 9999.0 0.0 14.3 0.6 60.6 60.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 13.1 13.2 14.4 1.0 70.5 67.6 11.3 12.4 12.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 87 13 100 14.4 14.7 14.0 0.5 62.2 60.6 12.9 14.2 15.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 92 8 100 9.0 8.9 11.6 0.0 52.7 52.6 7.7 8.9 10.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 93 7 100 11.3 11.3 11.8 0.1 52.0 52.0 10.0 11.2 12.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 84 16 100 10.0 9.3 9.2 -0.4 45.5 44.6 8.8 9.8 10.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 13.3 13.0 14.5 1.0 70.0 66.8 11.0 12.6 13.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 86 14 100 4.8 5.2 9.3 0.0 55.1 52.4 3.1 4.5 5.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 90 10 100 12.2 12.2 12.3 0.2 56.6 54.5 10.8 12.1 12.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 87 13 100 12.0 12.1 10.5 0.2 56.5 54.6 10.7 11.9 12.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 88 12 100 11.9 11.9 11.0 0.0 52.2 50.9 10.9 11.8 12.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 85 15 100 9.8 9.6 9.9 -0.1 51.8 49.3 8.7 9.5 10.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 11.4 10.9 9.8 -0.4 46.6 44.3 10.2 11.2 11.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 87 13 100 12.6 12.8 12.3 0.4 60.7 59.2 11.2 12.4 13.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 90 10 100 12.6 13.1 13.2 0.3 54.8 55.7 11.8 12.4 13.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 87 13 100 12.2 11.9 10.6 -0.2 48.0 47.4 10.8 12.1 12.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 30 70 100 13.7 13.9 14.4 1.3 73.7 70.8 11.1 13.0 13.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 84 16 100 10.5 11.0 9.7 0.2 59.6 56.3 9.4 10.3 11.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 13.3 13.6 14.2 0.8 69.0 66.3 10.6 12.4 13.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 6.6 6.5 7.3 0.0 55.7 52.9 5.7 6.2 7.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 91 9 100 11.9 11.9 13.4 0.2 56.3 55.2 10.5 11.8 12.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 30 70 100 12.9 13.0 14.2 1.1 72.4 69.9 10.1 12.1 12.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 46 54 100 12.8 12.9 13.8 0.6 65.5 63.7 10.5 12.2 12.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 85 15 100 12.0 12.6 11.9 0.3 60.9 58.2 10.7 11.7 12.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 94 6 100 12.6 12.9 13.1 0.3 56.6 56.0 10.6 12.5 13.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 85 15 100 10.7 10.0 9.1 -0.6 41.6 42.0 9.7 10.4 11.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 91 9 100 12.6 12.6 13.7 0.6 59.9 59.6 11.0 12.5 12.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 90 10 100 10.8 10.7 12.1 0.0 51.0 51.8 10.1 10.7 11.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 9.2 9.2 8.8 0.1 57.2 54.4 7.3 9.0 9.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 41 59 100 13.5 13.4 14.5 0.8 67.5 64.9 11.0 12.8 13.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------