***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.05.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.05.2019.-16.06.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 92.9 99.4 88.3 124.1 72.7 66.0 58.4 69.4 87.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 84.4 87.9 78.8 126.2 71.2 65.9 61.7 73.3 83.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 92.4 96.5 79.5 113.9 65.3 58.5 59.5 84.4 97.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 94.4 93.0 79.8 108.9 62.1 55.4 71.7 89.5 96.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 73.0 77.4 78.1 110.6 63.7 56.1 51.8 67.7 80.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 76.9 74.0 80.9 96.4 50.8 48.8 61.7 73.8 80.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 32 68 100 79.4 85.6 81.4 129.9 71.9 67.5 43.6 60.1 76.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 100.2 98.0 82.6 99.6 55.3 51.0 87.0 95.3 105.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 71.4 76.9 82.1 111.0 62.5 56.2 51.1 66.9 77.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 86.6 84.0 87.1 102.0 56.1 51.8 62.8 82.1 95.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 52.5 65.6 70.7 100.5 57.0 50.5 52.6 63.9 68.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 68.8 65.9 69.0 99.1 57.2 50.2 46.9 63.3 70.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 68.2 62.7 73.1 97.8 52.3 48.7 48.8 62.3 75.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 100.7 95.8 91.7 102.8 57.4 51.4 73.5 92.4 98.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 62.5 61.0 68.1 102.3 56.5 51.4 51.5 58.3 66.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 64.9 65.5 70.4 99.5 54.7 49.7 41.6 61.5 68.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 89.1 94.9 76.5 126.6 72.4 65.5 58.8 71.2 85.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 89.7 89.8 94.0 104.1 57.1 52.6 74.7 86.9 94.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 41 59 100 98.2 100.8 76.4 118.9 67.9 61.7 70.5 82.2 95.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 61.0 74.6 88.7 99.8 55.5 50.2 65.7 73.2 86.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 70.9 73.4 82.7 115.9 66.3 59.5 56.0 67.9 72.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 42 58 100 84.7 87.4 75.4 121.3 69.2 62.5 64.0 76.4 86.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 70.8 78.1 73.7 108.7 63.5 55.5 60.8 66.3 78.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 87.7 87.0 86.4 106.1 59.5 53.5 70.3 83.1 93.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 32 68 100 89.2 91.3 94.9 123.6 72.4 64.8 57.0 65.8 86.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 68.2 66.8 65.7 97.3 52.6 48.8 46.6 64.8 72.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 31 69 100 93.2 95.3 96.9 128.2 75.0 67.8 59.4 75.8 90.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 62.7 61.0 72.3 101.1 56.2 51.0 48.7 58.5 69.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 108.0 106.6 93.2 102.5 56.8 51.0 87.6 100.8 119.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 40 60 100 87.4 87.6 80.3 123.6 70.6 64.4 65.1 79.0 85.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------