***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.05.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.06.2019.-16.06.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 7.8 15.0 14.2 84.0 54.0 45.9 7.4 14.7 20.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 11.3 25.4 14.0 97.8 58.9 48.5 10.5 19.5 29.0 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 8.7 27.6 14.1 86.7 57.9 46.9 8.8 15.8 36.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 25.8 24.1 14.3 84.6 56.9 47.4 7.4 22.3 30.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 19.1 20.5 14.5 89.8 58.3 48.3 6.3 15.0 29.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 8.8 19.1 19.4 97.4 59.6 48.9 10.4 16.5 20.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 7.1 12.3 13.2 91.4 55.9 46.0 7.7 11.2 22.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 19.5 18.6 17.8 94.0 55.7 49.4 10.8 15.8 23.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 19.1 16.7 15.3 90.0 57.2 47.9 8.8 14.5 21.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 24.9 22.1 17.9 88.9 53.9 47.5 9.1 19.0 33.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 16.6 17.1 13.5 89.6 57.8 47.2 10.7 13.5 21.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 14.0 14.6 14.6 95.7 59.3 49.3 6.2 10.6 16.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 4.8 16.5 15.9 94.6 61.0 46.8 5.7 11.3 17.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 23.1 20.9 19.5 92.0 56.8 48.1 11.3 19.0 27.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 12.2 11.1 12.2 82.9 56.0 46.1 1.8 9.4 19.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 5.8 12.9 15.0 94.3 60.6 47.5 3.3 10.3 14.3 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 8.5 21.4 13.9 98.9 59.4 47.8 8.2 14.0 22.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 21.5 20.1 21.0 96.0 55.9 49.7 6.9 16.0 28.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 11.2 22.1 14.3 96.0 59.4 48.5 12.1 17.9 24.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 20.9 22.6 21.6 101.2 59.4 51.4 5.4 16.8 26.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 15.7 13.0 14.8 90.8 59.7 48.4 7.8 10.4 16.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 9.3 19.3 15.9 109.4 63.5 49.9 9.9 15.7 20.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 20.0 16.7 13.9 87.2 57.2 46.5 8.0 14.2 21.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 23.7 20.7 17.3 90.8 57.2 48.7 10.7 18.8 29.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 17.4 14.4 15.2 82.7 54.4 46.3 7.9 13.7 21.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 4.1 14.5 14.4 101.5 63.6 46.5 2.7 9.4 17.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 19.0 15.7 15.3 84.3 54.1 45.9 7.5 14.6 18.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 15.1 17.6 14.4 87.2 57.4 47.5 3.2 10.9 21.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 30.4 28.4 21.6 97.3 56.4 50.1 10.7 26.0 38.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 9.7 18.5 13.6 89.6 56.7 47.1 7.1 17.4 24.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------